Pilot demand when times are good

[Northern Highflyer]

Having just read a post by Rob in the Oxford App V Oxford Modular thread, it has got me thinking (a rarity I know).

We have all heard of the downsides of the job market, pilots made redundant, difficulty getting so much as an interview, with an ever growing pile of PFO letters. All this is for the experienced ones which leaves us wannabe / newly qualifieds well and truly at the bottom of the pile.

But what happens when there is a decent upturn in the market ?

Would Rob or others who have been through it care to share their experiences with us ? I don't want to turn this into a "Remove your rose tinted specs because it aint gonna happen" thread, but I would be interested in how the market and the demand changes in such an upturn.

For instance, does the demand for pilots increase quite quickly, and are airlines often "camped" outside FTO's waiting for anyone with a licence to walk out to snap them up ? Do the high requirements they currently set fall rapidly when they can't get enough guys with all the criteria they stipulate ?

Hopefully you get the idea.

Ok it can only be a "what has happened in the past" exercise and doesn't mean it will happen in the same way again, but for those of us who weren't around at that time to experience it, a little insight would be useful.

Regards

NH :ok:

[scroggs]

In exceptional times ('98-2001 was one such), airlines have indeed approached students while still on courses, but those who had graduated some time previously and were marking time, and had perhaps lost currency, were still finding things difficult.

I think we have interesting times ahead; my contacts report that BA is struggling to fill its latest direct-entry quota for type-rated pilots (though that process may be suspended due to a pension dispute), easyJet, Ryanair, Britannia, Virgin Atlantic, FlyBe and BACX are all recruiting in UK - and not finding things easy; most of the Middle and Far East airlines are also recruiting, and the pool of experienced and type-rated pilots is fast running out. That means that many of these jobs will be filled by poaching from other airlines (which has positive ramifications for pay and conditions), and the rest will have to be filled by inexperienced, unrated pilots.

That means you guys!

Scroggs

[Alex Whittingham]

When the supply and demand curves go wrong they often go spectacularly wrong. Back in 1990 the airlines were so short they were also offering people jobs before they had a license.

So many people wanted to do ATPLs that the CAA examiners couldn't cope with the demand for Instrument Ratings. You couldn't book a CAAFU test slot without the 170A so the procedure was to do your IR training up to test standard, get a 170A, then book a test maybe three months in the future. If you could afford it you tried to keep your hand in in the meantime.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

But the windows are small - as soon as recruiting gets tight a veritable deulge of people jack in their desks and go into training. Just think how many people right now and for the last couple of years have been toying with the idea of 'going commercial'..

A year later they all emerge in a tidal wave looking for work with the inevitable result. Timing - is everything in this business as most pilots will tell you. That and luck. And contacts maybe. Of course right time - right place is also true. Plus shiny shoes, very important shiny shoes...

Good luck,

WWW

[Flying Farmer]

Glad to see things may be moving in the industry.

Thanks for the input from Scroggs and WWW, its good to hear some better news for once.

Shoes are gleaming WWW, polished weekly, hope I get a chance to give them an airing soon. :ok:

[Northern Highflyer]

Thanks guys for those interesting comments.

From my limited knowledge as a wannabe it does seem that the airlines have been cut to the bone for far too long now and that something has to give. I suspect there will be a glut of jobs going in the near future, but as has been pointed out here, the timescale and the opportunity will be brief. Of course one slight blip in world events would wipe out any recruitment drive overnight.

I am assuming from the comments made above, that it won't be long before the airlines begin to lower their recruitment criteria.

With the unfortunate trend towards buying your own type rating, the comments by Scroggs suggests that the airlines will have to bite the bullet and put guys through the courses which has to be a positive for those of us with large loans already.

Having read the threads on this site for a while now it does appear that T&C's have been severely eroded in recent times. Let's hope this is an opportunity to restore the balance a little.

NH

[Ropey Pilot]

Still looking for that first job myself, but I would assume that the days of self funded type ratings will not change overnight.:{

Companies may be having difficulty finding the calibre of pilots they are after (reading into what scroggs said) , but there are still plenty of unemployed wannabees in the system. These are the people they will have to recruit whether or not they meet the ideal standard (wait for lavatory gag...). That is (in my uninformed opinion) a separate issue as to whether or not that same person will have to pay for a rating. One is dictated by number of applicants, the other by costs.

In the big picture this may change to encourage more people to begin training if a shortage (ha ha:} ) occurs - but I think I will have had to pay for my rating with my first company long before then:ugh: - Or if I haven't then I'll be asking if you want fries with that!
:uhoh:

[RowleyUK]

Interesting......

Alex is right about the early 90's!!

I can remember in a 'back issue' of Pilot Magazine in around 1994'ish where an interview about the pilot shortage of the early 90's. They were talking with one of the Chief pilots during that time.....He was quoted as having said:-

" If a monkey turned up at the door with a CPL/IR then it would have got a job!"

Good eh!

[sawotanao]

I think CPL/IR's back then had a choice of airline to go to out of the half a dozen job offers they'd had:{