Aer Lingus to Dubai at last

[Shamjet]

Looks like Aer Lingus are finally going take the plunge , (well over due) and start route to Dubai in the off-peak. Suggested that it's Baltimore that will be sacrificed or is there a new A330 in the pipeline.?
Still don't understand why they are not taking advantage of Cape Town demand. Is it anything to do with only two engined Aircraft??
Dubai will sell like hot-cakes!!
SJ

[ACE Dispatcher]

Great news for Dublin and Dubai if it goes ahead!

Shamjet- Do you know when the service is due to commence? Aerlingus.com have no news about the route.

Brgds ACE..

[akerosid]

I've heard this from a few people and it seems to be a strategic coup for the airline, if it goes ahead. EI wants to expand further east, but what is the biggest threat to this? Emirates. If EI can go into DXB, hoover up all the point to point tourist traffic, it could keep EK out indefinitely. If they're kept out of the way, other destinations, such as HKG, CPT etc. could open.

Of course, there's also the possibility of extra US flights to consider. If EI gets this, as a result of a new Irish/US bilateral (or better still, an EU/US deal, if this can be agreed), it will want to add new US flights. Can it do both; it's probably going to be looking around for new A330s.

Any chance they could find some with Personal TVs in Economy; if they want to expand east, they'll really need to beef up their service product or they'll be eaten alive. EK are quite competitive via the UK, so if they don't at least attempt to emulate EK, there are plenty of other choices out there . . .

[SNNEI]

Hi,

Great news, and a great strategic move for Aerlingus in beating EK to it. I doubt Baltimore will be sacrificed though: it is doing well as far as I can see, and bear in mind that EI were very quick to return to it once the 9/11 situation began to stabilise. I'm sure a 330 can be picked up from somewhere! EI has also leased in aircraft before for the US operation in the summer.

The only thing that might suggest BWI being dropped is if US are doing so well on Philadelphia that they are managing to steal enough traffic from EI.

[MAN777]

Aer Lingus may sweep up the dubai holiday traffic (and a very nice place it is) but EK have the connections, their whole network is based around a superb hub at DXB most ex UK PAX are transiting DXB, thats why they are doing so well. You can consider DXB to be just another AMS but just a bit further.

[mikekilo]

Great news if its true... I suspect it will be winter 2004/2005 before we see these flights kick off.

[SNNEI]

MAN777,

You are of course correct, but there is nothing to stop an EI passenger interlining onto EK (I may be wrong there, so please correct me if I am)

There is also a sizeable Irish community in Dubai to consider too.

(And of course at least the managment of DXB were sensible enough to instal an Irish pub so we don't feel TOO far from home :) )

[Jordan D]

If EI do it quickly enough, before EK get a route DXB-JFK, then EI could do well to compete with other airlines doing a JFK-DXB via Europe ... or at least that's my two pence.

Jordan

[MarkD]

Too late. EK start DXB-JFK from 01.06 using A345.

That said, BWI, LAX, ORD and BOS are not yet served.

[WHBM]

Will Y pax have to pay for drinks ? That will be a real turn-off on the Asian routes.

[mutt]

I cant see this working for point to point traffic on a daily basis, i cant believe that there is sufficient traffic!
For onward traffic, the returns for EI for sharing revenue on a Dublin - India/Pakistan sector may not be worthwhile.
For connections beyond sub-asia, the return to EI will be even less.\
To me, not a good route. They would be better focusing on South Africa.


Mutt.

[SNNEI]

Why does it need to be point to point traffic though? Passengers were always able to interline before alliances and they are still able to do so. There is nothing to stop EI pax from going on with EK to Oz for example.

EK have said themselves that there is a huge amount of Irish pax on their services ex UK. That alone is what has had them looking at DUB for a couple of years now. These pax are hardly connecting onwards again via Dubai after connecting already in the UK when they could have made a single connection at Heathrow.

South Africa may not be the great bet it was made out to be initially. There are rumours traffic was soft on the AV8 services. ex DUB. (Open to correction on this point: don't know for sure)

[akerosid]

I agree, SNNEI, but there were very strong rumours floating around that EK was close to a Dublin service. Now, with a shopping list of the size it has, with the product quality and marketing expertise, an EK service would seriously undermine EI's chances of expanding east. How to deal with this? Hit them at their home base. By taking away the point to point traffic (they can market DXB as a shopping/tourism paradise), they can push EK's entry into the Irish market back indefinitely. With EK out of the day, EI can plan other Asian markets, such as SIN or HKG, according to its timetable and not have to look over its shoulder at EK.

Remember that EI is going to have its hands full with US expansion this year, so it doesn't want to be forced to act on its eastbound ambitions. There are very good signs that a EU/US deal could be signed at the EU Summit this June, which means no more stopover (it also means no "side" deal between Ireland and the US to continue the stopover for another few years); this means that EI will have to find new aircraft and operate new routes, probably from September. A route to DXB is a very effective way of limiting competition and keeping its options open.

[SNNEI]

Aeroskid,

If you read my earlier post, you will see that this was exactly what I was trying to convey :)

Great minds think alike and all.. ;)

One thing I would question is EK's service product. For me on the longhaul, pretty much all I worry about is space. No chance you'll see me me on a 10 abreast 777 any time soon! I would imagine if EK came in, it would be a 330 operation. What is their config on the 'bus?

Having to pay for drinks etc would not really influence my choice so much. As long as the IFE is OK, and the seat is fine, i'm happy. Also, i'll get TAB miles with EI. As most PAX will be Irish originating, this may be a big plus factor for EI if it ever came to a head to head.

[akerosid]

Yes, I see, sorry! In the word's of my favourite philosopher, "D'oh!" . . .

Anyway, nothing about it at all in any of the Irish papers I've seen, or indeed about changes to the stopover. Maybe next week . . .

[uy707]

The Dubai venture may prove a nice wild card by rightly adressing
-the UK regional market of connections and sixth-liberty tickets sales, I think they are probably a lot of UK citizens working in the UAE who would enjoy a departure/return from/to local airport, if one of the many served by EI, then connect at far less congestion Collingston instead of connecting thru LGW, LHR or driving up or down to either MAN, BHX, GLA.
-the Irish market, by trailing the British, many Irish people work overseas. Should EI plans flying to DXB, some items of their market reseached confirmed presence of many Irish working in the oil industry.
Alain

[SNNEI]

Aeroskid,

A poster on airliners.net has mentioned an article in one of Todays Irish papers, but it doesnt mention Dubai.

It does say Asia, and more US routes and Canada!!

Also mentions that EI are dumping the A330'S in favour of 7E7'S with leased 777's as an interim measure. That last bit is probably just EI going through the motions to hammer out a better deal with Airbus though.

I have tried both Irish independent and Examiner, but it's not in either of those, so I assume its the Irish times.

By the way, I think we have a favorite philosopher in common! ;)

[akerosid]

I've wondered about the airline's fleet plans and while there could be a lot to be gained in talking to Boeing if they want to get a good deal from Airbus, I don't think Boeing can be dismissed completely. Yes, there's the commonality thing, but commonality isn't much help if aircraft can't do the job they are needed for.

The A330-300 is a fine aircraft, no doubting that, but it's not a long legged machine. So, if EI needs a capacity boost above that 320 seat limit, where does it go? A340s are out because of DUB's runway, so maybe it's worth looking at what the 777 can do.

Boeing knows EI is in the market for new aircraft and that it has ambitious plans; if it can provide a good deal and be a supportive partner in that growth, then perhaps it deserves a deal. Does Airbus have the same incentive to be as accommodating? Doubtful, I would think. The 332 is very popular already.

As for the 332, I have no doubt that more will be joining the fleet, probably an increased gross weight A333 as well, but that's not inconsistent with a Boeing deal; the 777s can replace the 333s and the 332s can soldier on until the 7E7 comes along in 2009.

Just my current thinking . . .

[MarkD]

Increasing US and Canadian gateways would help a plan to use DUB as a hub for DXB bound traffic, especially as a carrier not part of the coalition of the willing or whatever it's called this week.

Premier traffic would also be helped by the fact that horsey people like the Sheikhs and the JP McManuses of this world might use the flight.

Great circle calculator says DUB-DXB is about the same distance as DUB-ORD so no problem for the 333 excepting issues with temperature at DXB allowing MTOW takeoff.

I'd like to see heavy 333s with IFE on all the existing US routes (incl LAX) except maybe BWI, the 332s with IFE for Canada, BWI and DXB route proving and the old 333s for bucket and spade work and cargo.

I would not underestimate Airbus' desire to keep what they hold, especially to keep down 7E7 sales in Europe to 33x customers.

[akerosid]

I'd like to see that two, but my real fear is, how willing is EI to do this? It's been used to competing with the likes of DL, so all they really need to do is be nice to pax and they're one up on most US carriers, but do they realise that once they start heading east, they're playing in the big league, quality wise. They can't just offer IFE to Middle and Far East bound flights, so that means the whole fleet; will they be willing to dish out the money for a decent IFE suite on all aircraft - and indeed, to invest in a new J Class? If not, pax have the choice. DXB is becoming increasingly popular, so major European airlines like KLM and AF are flying larger types (777s), which are better equipped for pax comfort.

I know we're well past the days of prestige, but from a national point of view, this represents a very belated push east for Ireland, with all the potential for new markets it represents. This is what initially annoyed me about the EI route - it would keep EK out; a DUB-DXB route for them, tapping into their huge network was something I'd long been hoping for. Now, once EI is getting in on the act, will WW do it right first time and look beyond just the point to point bucket and spade crowd and make sure EI gets it right and makes a good impression first time out?

I'll wait and see but I'm not optimistic.