Is there a Shortage Coming?

[TurbineDreamer]

I know people say that there never has been nor will be a shortage, but what are present thoughts in the UK and Europe.
I have over 500 command hours and 800 total. Any thoughts on movement at present. I am from OZ and have right to live and work in the UK.

Thanks

[redsnail]

There is movement for experienced turboprop and jet pilots. (as usual). The pay for the rating deal seems to be gathering momentum although I hear that Emerald didn't charge their new FO's for a Shed rating. (yet to be confirmed).
The market is still a smidge jittery, terrorist activity is keeping the market slightly nervous.
With your hours you have a very expensive conversion to do.
You may like to note that Qantaslink are now getting desperate for pilots and that will open up gaps for folks like yourself.

[Ex Oggie]

The definition of a shortage is when airlines have to occasionally advertise for crews, rather than beat them back from the doors with a sharp pointed stick? :p

[Phil Brockwell]

No shortage of CV's, BUT I notice fewer 500+ hour CV's coming through, and A LOT more 200-250 hour CV's coming through.

Phil

[scroggs]

Is there a shortage coming? No, there isn't. Sorry.

Scroggs

[Redstripe]

Scroggs,

Your sweeping statement is based on what exactly...??

A recent comment from BALPA career services states:

... it looks like the source of rated jet Pilots with airline experience is seemingly drying up – which is an indication of hope for the low hours Pilots in the 'food chain'.

That suggests a possible shortage to me, or at least a reduction of any surplus...

[Ropey Pilot]

Redstripe,

I think you validated scroggs opinion yourself - a reduction of surplus is a long way from being a shortage (Unfortunately for T&C):(

[RowleyUK]

The market is currently the best it has been for the last two years!!!


I would hazard a guess that there will NEVER be a shortage of Low houred pilots!! That said, I would stick my neck on the line to say that there may well be a shortage of Type Rated experienced pilots out of work in the coming year or so!!


Agree Scroggs???:E :ok: :E

[Redstripe]

Ropey Pilot,

I disagree. How long is a piece of string? The original question is open to some interpretation - a shortage of what?, and over what time scale?

At the moment the UK market has a surplus of type-rated, experienced airline pilots, mainly due to the recent demise of EAAC. A large number (around 100) pilots were dumped on the market. Some of these pilots have already found work, others are still looking, others (ex BA over 55s) may hang up their boots altogether. This blip does not look likely to last long, as several companies are currently recruiting. By the summer I certainly think that there will be a shortage of type-rated, experienced airline pilots looking for work. There will inevitably be a movement of pilots from company to company, but not many left on the dole!

I quite agree with RowleyUK that there will always be a supply of low-hours pilots looking for their first job, but many airlines will not be prepared to take these guys/girls on. If you look at the websites of various UK jet airlines, the ones that are recruiting are generally looking for type-ratings and experience.

I stick with my opinion. I am quite willing to hear Scroggs' point of view, but let's have the considered version, rather than a glib comment!

Regards, RS

[scroggs]

You're right, it was a bit of a glib and sweeping comment, but essentially it's true. Bear in mind TurbineDreamer's lack of hours and experience (800 hours is not a lot, in the overall scheme of things), and you'll understand that he's potentially in competition with many, many other low-houred European wannabes. At his point in the market, there is not (and probably never will be) a shortage of pilots.

Also bear in mind that this question comes up quite a lot, and the answer hasn't changed for many years!

You are also quite right to point out that there is a reducing pool of experienced pilots in the marketplace, and that it's quite true that there is sometimes a relative shortage of experienced, type-rated pilots out there - but we aren't at that point yet, and I have considerable doubts that we will be any time soon. Maybe the less popular employers might have difficulties in a year or two, but at Virgin we could fill every job we have 50 or 100 times over. That, to me, is not indicative of a shortage. However, there is the beginnings of movement in the market from lo-costs and charter to Virgin (and, hopefully quite soon, to BA), which is good news for you guys at the bottom of the pile. I don't think it will ever amount to a 'shortage', so you can't afford to lower your game.

Scroggs

[scroggs]

Because, even in times of plenty, not every employer wants to take just any pilot. In any case, there are actually very few 'pilot wanted' ads in Flight apart from those from agencies looking for short-term contract pilots for far-flung parts of the world.

Scroggs

Just to prove the point, I searched FI's website for permanent UK fixed-wing jobs. This is what I found:

EasyJet want pilots. No surprises there.

An unidentified operator wants a Chief Pilot for a Cessna 421 operation.

Another operator wants a Captain for an HS125-800.

That's it. Nothing else.

[Redstripe]

If there is a large pool of unemployed, experienced, type rated, pilots as some say

I don't think that anyone has suggested that this pool is large. It isn't. I stated that I believe there is a current surplus of unemployed type-rated pilots mainly due to the demise of one company. These pilots are currently being absorbed into several different carriers.

A 'type-rated' unemployed pilot will also find that his/her type rating is not of much use if it is on the wrong type. Many of the currently unemployed pilots have only a 737-200 rating, and no-one is curently recruiting (or likely to again) for this type. This rating does convert relatively easily to a -300 series or -NG rating however.

Many UK employers are probably still finding that they do not need to advertise. This may be because they already have a stack of CVs to choose from, or because the unemployed pilots are coming directly to them. Although there may be few adverts being placed in FI, the following are also currently recruiting for permanent UK fixed-wing jobs :-

Air Atlanta
Astraeus
BMI baby
Britannia (Mainline & Thomsonfly)
Jet2
Ryanair
Virgin Atlantic

Adding these to easyJet as already mentioned, there are therefore vacancies for hundreds of pilots over the next year or so. All these companies would prefer to take experienced type-rated pilots. Most will settle for experience OR a type-rating. Many of the positions, however, will have to be filled by people with neither.

[scroggs]

flungdung

If unemployed, experienced, type rated, FW pilots will only look at permanent, UK based airlines then they can certainly afford to be on the dole.

Maybe they can, but they should not be looking in this forum. It is only for those wannabes seeking their first professional flying appontment. Foreign contract employers or agencies do not employ newly-qualified fATPLs, whether fixed or rotary wing.

Redstripe

You're quite right that the airlines you mention are recruiting. You're also right that contact will usually be made between those airlines and experienced pilots without the benefit of advertising. However, your statement that hundreds of experienced pilots will be taken off the UK market, while not strictly wrong, gives the wrong impression, I think. Most of the airlines you mention want small numbers of pilots - many of them are talking in single figures. Ryanair, EasyJet, Virgin and BA are indeed recruiting in significant numbers, though Ryan and Easy will take many pilots from elsewhere in the newly-expanded (from Saturday) EU. The total experienced pilot uptake from the UK this year is likely to be around a couple of hundred, with the balance of say another 100 coming from other countries.

Don't get me wrong; this is excellent news both for the experienced and the wannabe pilot! But let's not get too enthusiastic until we see greater numbers of wannabes actually being offered jobs - whoever the employers are!

Scroggs