MYTravel Share trading

[jmc-man]

Just spotted over £.75M worth of share selling in MYT just before close of business yesterday, in 4 trades.

Wonder if some big investors are offloading prior ro an announcement of some sort.

[skid]

from the volumes traded, it looks like just another day on the stock market. Bad press, not a great summer's trading are all taking their toll. Things should be clearer after the bondholders decision later this month.

[carbootking]

jmc man start looking at ba shares when they go back in ft100 soon there price will fall again . all the bad news they have got the last few months most shares would have crashed someones trying real to keep thatr high

[tailscrape]

carbootking

You would need very deep pockets to prop up any FTSE100 company share price.

Believe me. Been there, tried to do that for clients in my old life.... and once or twice to hold up bad positions on my own book at the bank i worked for.

Not advisable, and most unlikely to suceed.

The reason for BA's rise in price, is the perceived "end" of aviation woes, and hope for return to profitabilty. As well as difficulties amongst competitors, not least the lo cost boys.

jmc man,

Is the perceived wisdom in Thomas Cook that MyTravel are about to unravel in November?

[jmc-man]

It would not be my place to state what the perceived "wisdom" (and I use that word loosely) of Thomas Cook might be of MyTravel's predicament. Having studied a copy of their accounts, I would have to say I am surprised the CAA Consumer Protection Group havn't played their hand yet.

If you apply the standard "Free Asset" test, required by the CAA to the set of published accounts, it should have stopped some time ago. I can only assume other forces (political or otherwise) are involved.

I think the bondholders decision coming up will be critical, and it is interesting to note how much of THEIR money they have recouped in fees!

[tailscrape]

I thought they may survive post Iraq, but it seems things are still pretty dire.

Bad news for all of us really if they fail, but I think the lights are going out later this year.:(

[kinsman]

I think there are a number of UK operators that do not meet the CAA free asset test. If they pulled the plug on MYT then they would have to apply the same standard to others! The industry is in a mess and the normal rules dont apply at the moment. My concern is not with the bond holders but cash flow in the winter, MYT may be better off in this respect than some others due to Mylite and other cash generating activities but once again only time will tell. Certainly not been a good year that is for sure.:sad:

[jmc-man]

Kinsman

I agree with your view on MyTravel Lite. Something that was spotted about the "traditional" low cost model is that it was cash rich. Lots of advance bookings to get the cheap fares meant money in bank long before it had to be spent. It would be next to impossible to discover if MYT Lite was actually making money, but it certainly is helping the parent organisation during lean cashflow times.

Of course Hapag Lloyd, Germania , and a number of other "Charter" carriers have also spotted this trend, particularly during winter. The Low Cost sector is being flooded with everyone trying to get their own cash earner up and running. Even "traditional" airlines have learned that by cutting booking costs and offering significantly cheaper seats through Internet booking, the cash effect can be dramatic.

One wonders where the this flood of "Low Cost" seats will end.

[kinsman]

My own view is the low cost operations are a double edged sword. On one side the public gain cheap seats, good news indeed! And more importantly for some it gererates cash flow. On the other side it forces operators to cut costs to compete this could have the effect of some operators cutting costs where they should not!

The costs are being driven up by insurance companies etc, at a time when airlines are desperate to keep them down. As these costs rise operators will be forced to cut costs dare I say corners elsewhere? A recent statement from Britannia regarding their intention to remove seat only tickets from their bond to bring them in-line with other low cost operators is one area where costs are going to be cut by traditional operators in a bid to jump on the band wagon.

Ultimately you can only play this game for so long and then operators will give way under the strain of reduced margins. All in all low cost operators are good for the public in the short term but are doing a lot of damage to the long term stability of the industry. One only need look at the Ryanair situation in France or Bournemouth, the travelling public are now paying the price for cheap tickets by loosing services in these areas.

:ok:

PS Share price up 3.5p Just goes to show the price is not always a indicator.

[jmc-man]

Insurance rates have dropped dramatically from last year. The issue of covering seat only's under the ATOL bond goes back to the issue of cash up front. The CAA CPG can require LCC's to deposit advance payments in an escrow if they have concerns about the company's viability. This, of course, would kill a project stone dead.

[tailscrape]

kinsman and jmc man

I agree in some way about the low cost model, but I imagine that the MT director's would like to turn the whole MT airways into a low cost operator now? Hive off the unprofitable(?) long haul to a specialist and concentrate on what gets done well perhaps?

As for share price movements, no market maker is going to get too long or too short of shares like these. They will be volatile for some time to come. Too many on the book at 20p, and if it goes bust you lose a lot. If you get too short at 20p, and the business is bid for..... well, you know the score.

OUCH!

[Stand 22]

tailscrape:

In the case of MYT, yes, longhaul is unprofitable. Infact, Frank Pullman, the new MD, has stated that he would like to see MYT get out of longhaul flying in the near future.

Regards,

[kriskross]

I seem to remember that when Dan Air were doing the Airtours work out of Manchester, when the tour company were very local and much smaller, that the airline management refused to do Airtours hoped for long haul work - which was why they used that dreadful old 747 that kept breaking down, with lots of rumours about how legal the aircraft was, as well.

I believe this was the major push for Airtours to start their own airline.

[Golf Charlie Charlie]

Did Dan Air ever operate a 747 ? I knew it had an A300 or two before the end.....

[In trim]

Don't recall Dan Air ever using a 747, but Air Europe did for a while.....horrendous aircraft.

But we're getting off topic.....what to do with MYT shares?

[Neo]

Errmmmm.....

1. Use them to light your cigar.

2. Wallpaper you downstairs loo with them.

The first of thousands of suggestions all gratefully received!

[LGS6753]

Dan-Air didn't operate a 747.
The '(something) pig', as it was christened by the tabloids was chartered from a US operator. (can't remember which one)

[kick the tires]

When I search for MYT shares in 'thisismoney', it always comes up with 'MyTravel Grp Sub CNV Bds 04' as an alternative.

does anyone know if the 2 companies are associated - this one has been losing 20% a day for the last 3 days....

[echomikeecho]

Try this one:
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MT.L&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l

Shows current share price, prices from the last 5 days and recent press articles.