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asdf1234
We're not far away from the point where, once again, the prediction from Stobart regarding future pax numbers is beginning to look way too optimistic. This is despite their best endeavours with the new routes. I am willing to believe that there will be growth in 2018 but - let's face it - in the context of where SEN is now, it will have to be spectacular.
We're not far away from the point where, once again, the prediction from Stobart regarding future pax numbers is beginning to look way too optimistic. This is despite their best endeavours with the new routes. I am willing to believe that there will be growth in 2018 but - let's face it - in the context of where SEN is now, it will have to be spectacular.
asdf1234
I think your estimate of just under 1.1m for 2017 will prove quite near the mark, although it might only scrape past 1m if the DUB, MAN and GLA fail to meet expectations.
If the target is still 2m for 2018 it will require a substantial new airline presence plus a 4th easyJet aircraft to achieve that surely.
I think your estimate of just under 1.1m for 2017 will prove quite near the mark, although it might only scrape past 1m if the DUB, MAN and GLA fail to meet expectations.
If the target is still 2m for 2018 it will require a substantial new airline presence plus a 4th easyJet aircraft to achieve that surely.
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asdf1234
I think your estimate of just under 1.1m for 2017 will prove quite near the mark, although it might only scrape past 1m if the DUB, MAN and GLA fail to meet expectations.
If the target is still 2m for 2018 it will require a substantial new airline presence plus a 4th easyJet aircraft to achieve that surely.
I think your estimate of just under 1.1m for 2017 will prove quite near the mark, although it might only scrape past 1m if the DUB, MAN and GLA fail to meet expectations.
If the target is still 2m for 2018 it will require a substantial new airline presence plus a 4th easyJet aircraft to achieve that surely.
There is a clear reluctance for airlines to take a serious look at Southend. This could well be down to the amount of failed routes the airport has had and the marginal nature of operating from this airport.
The fact that Southend is on the coast and that potential new passengers would not view a coastal airport as being a London airport will not help. No motorway running past the front door will not help matters either and nor would the morning and late night train situation.
That said Southend has a good reputation for ease of use but that is not swaying passengers to head to the airport in large numbers.
I am not actually convinced Easyjet would hang around Southend when the next downturn hits the travel industry. When passengers don't fill aircraft consolidation takes place which is usually achieved by ending flights from smaller airports to help out their bigger operations at larger airports.
From memory EasyJet dropped its 4th aircraft from Southend in a rising market. Maybe that speaks volumes that Southend has yet to address and maybe can't address?
Last edited by Pain in the R's; 19th Aug 2017 at 06:48.
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So investors look to what the board have said about profitability. Where will the dividend payments come from in the future? The story being spun to analysts, who then punt it on to investors, is that the airport will see 2.5m pax by 2019, and 5m pax by 2022. And the proof of this growth can be seen in Flybe starting up new routes this year at the airport.
Of course, anyone with just an ounce of intelligence will look further than the analysts recommendations and understand that the Flybe new routes are in fact that airport owner's new routes, but it still makes for a good story.
The clock is ticking. Make the airport profitable before the assets available to sell run out. The recent sale and leaseback of the Stobart aircraft was another example of selling assets to pay the dividend.
The 2017 pax numbers forecast looks to be around the 1m figure. So next year they aim to more than double that. And then double it again by 2022.
I can't see how they will do that. They have mentioned a 4th based Easy aircraft and have mentioned Whizz. But will that double numbers in a year?
The share price is driven by sentiment. It is not, in itself, proof that everything is rosy in the garden.
Stobart Group's dividend cover was 0.82 in 2016, falling to 0.6 this year. Anything less than 1.0 indicates that the dividends are not covered by earnings, and can only be maintained from asset sales or reserves.
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And yet Stobart continue to invest large sums of money in the airport. They can only expect to see a return on money spent on new stands, upgrades to the apron and taxiways if there is a substantial increase in aircraft movements. As for increasing the number of long-term parking spaces - money down the drain if they're not needed.
So SEN continues to fascinate and frustrate. Incredibly vulnerable right now with a new chief soon to be installed at easyjet and potential ramifications there; there's still that belief that something good must happen soon, otherwise how can Stobart continue to talk the talk?
So SEN continues to fascinate and frustrate. Incredibly vulnerable right now with a new chief soon to be installed at easyjet and potential ramifications there; there's still that belief that something good must happen soon, otherwise how can Stobart continue to talk the talk?
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I wouldn't be too concerned about EZY. They are in their sixth year of operation, if SEN was a lossmaker they'd have left by now. I still have doubts about the longevity of CDG but other than that everything seems to tick over nicely, there continue to be new routes added and I often find fares on Med routes to be significantly more expensive than other airports.
If any downturn resulted in consolidation I'd suggest it would be STN most at risk, and SEN could be a beneficiary of such a scenario. They could easily run routes such as Asturias from LTN, and send a couple of aircraft to SEN to bump up frequency to the likes of Ibiza and transfer over sunshine routes like Dubrovnik and Split.
If any downturn resulted in consolidation I'd suggest it would be STN most at risk, and SEN could be a beneficiary of such a scenario. They could easily run routes such as Asturias from LTN, and send a couple of aircraft to SEN to bump up frequency to the likes of Ibiza and transfer over sunshine routes like Dubrovnik and Split.
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If EZY were to base a 4th aircraft at SEN when would it likely be announced? we are into early summer 2018 bookings, Would have thought that it would have been sooner rather than later
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"Fake news" Sometimes it is worth reviewing old news to see what was predicted actually happened.
Airlines queuing up to use Southend Airport as bosses reveal they turned down Ryanair deal (From Echo)
Airlines queuing up to use Southend Airport as bosses reveal they turned down Ryanair deal (From Echo)
Last edited by LTNman; 19th Aug 2017 at 13:33.
PitR's
While I can well understand your scepticism you know as well as anybody that airlines don't generally reveal their plans through "hints" before announcements are made.
A month ago easyJet's Director of UK Marketing said "We're keen to continue adding more varied routes to our (Southend) schedule." and Wizzair responded with a "watch this space" comment to an enquirer who asked about services to SEN. Now either (or both) of those could result in nothing at all but reports that Wizzair have shown serious interest in SEN cannot be accurately described as "fake news".
While I can well understand your scepticism you know as well as anybody that airlines don't generally reveal their plans through "hints" before announcements are made.
A month ago easyJet's Director of UK Marketing said "We're keen to continue adding more varied routes to our (Southend) schedule." and Wizzair responded with a "watch this space" comment to an enquirer who asked about services to SEN. Now either (or both) of those could result in nothing at all but reports that Wizzair have shown serious interest in SEN cannot be accurately described as "fake news".
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AirportPlanner1....Not quite there with the whole story when you state EZY would have left by now if SEN was loss making....the contract/partnership with Stobart is/was 10 years,hence also when a route is dropped(& there have been many) it is always replaced to cover based a/c utilisation as per..Are there more destinations flown now compared with 2012?..The press releases in 2012 stated 800,000 passengers for year one...where are we now in year six?...
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It may have been mentioned before but Southend's runway length and width is a significant factor in attracting airlines like Ryanair. I doubt a B737-800 could operate without significant load restrictions.
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AirportPlanner1....Not quite there with the whole story when you state EZY would have left by now if SEN was loss making....the contract/partnership with Stobart is/was 10 years,hence also when a route is dropped(& there have been many) it is always replaced to cover based a/c utilisation as per..Are there more destinations flown now compared with 2012?..The press releases in 2012 stated 800,000 passengers for year one...where are we now in year six?...
Out of interest, when EZY (or most other airlines for that matter) drop a route elsewhere, say STN/LTN/LGW, are you honestly suggesting they don't introduce something new or increase frequency on an existing route to replace and the only reason they don't leave the aircraft sitting around doing nothing is because they're contractually obliged not to?
Not sure on number of destinations now compared to the start as I don't keep count but I'd have thought it's probably increased.
I'd also suggest 800,000 is being exceeded, perhaps consult the CAA stats to find out.
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AirportPlanner1.........The EZY break clause was at the end of the first 2 years.. I`m not suggesting SEN is loss making per se..I am pointing out the base & it`s operation are governed by more issues than you acknowledge...Don`t wish to trade figures with you but it is evident to all that they are v similar in year 6 as in year 1...so the inference may be "going thru the motions"..