BIRMINGHAM - 6

[OltonPete]

September Route analysis

Source: CAA for the passenger figures with libhomeradar and a BHX bl*g helping for the average per flight.

Most are pretty good with one of the best Istanbul figures although Air India dipped again. PIA due to the lack of flights recorded a 93% load factor and Emirates was up.

The core business routes in the main did well but Paris suffered 33 cancelled flights! Note Amsterdam not far of 50000 with Emirates third best with Dublin first nearly 60000 pax.

Cologne actually improved and on the whole flybe did well.

2013 in brackets

Brussels........12787 (10605).....53 per flight..66% load factor (more Q400's)
Dubrovnik.......4603 (3280).... 177 pax........88%
Split..............3118 (3034).....130 pax........75%
Larnaca..........8021 (7945).....191 pax........89%
Paphos.......... 2984 (4254).....187 pax........87%
Copenhagen... 9988 (6761).......97 pax........76%
Avignon...........110 ( 82).........55 pax.........71%
Bergerac...........85 (nil)...........43 pax........48%
Bordeaux.........2396(1138).......70 pax....... 82%
Brest..............145 (nil)............36 pax........47%
La Rochelle......186 (242)..........47 pax........53%
Lyons.............3839 (3586).......74 pax........84%
Nice...............5718 (6670)......130 pax.......70%
Paris CDG......25108 (31692)......93 pax........85%
Perpignan............0 (2326)...........pax...........%
Toulouse.........3360 (1085)......65 pax.........81%
Berlin TXL.........nil.. (5074)......... pax...........%
Cologne..........3097 (nil)......... 52 pax.........65%
Dusseldorf.....19310 (18083)... .60 pax.........66%
Frankfurt.......29536 (26616).. 125 pax.........79%
Hamburg.........2677 (2949)... ..53 pax.........60%
Hanover..........5883 (4119)... ..64 pax.........71%
Munich..........15877 (15218).. .97 pax.........79%
Stuttgart........6628 (4494).... .64 pax.........73%
Gibraltar..........3542 (3440))....136 pax.........78%
Athens............1590 (nil).......133 pax.........79%
Heraklion.........3373 (2821)....187 pax.........88%
Cork...............5942 (6367)......50 pax.........69%
Knock.............2614 (***)......44 pax.........56%
Dublin............58170 (46434)..121 pax.........76%
Shannon..........3976 (2745).....33 pax.........69%
Waterford........1887 (2036).....56 pax.........71%
Bergamo............nil (3725)
Florence..........3646 (nil)........73 pax.........75%
Milan MXP........8756 (5243).....73 pax........83%
Rome FCO........9951 (9729)....172 pax........82%
Trieste.............2235 (2147)...140 pax.......74%
Venice.............5541 (5424)...163 pax........76%
Malta..............3281 (3220)...??? pax.........??% A few KM pax included I believe
Amsterdam.....4860 (40529)....100 pax........87%
Faro............. 20569 (19607)..187 pax........92%
Oporto...........2475 (nil)..........73 pax........83%
Funchel..........3277 (2866)..incorrect split shown between schedule & IT
Alicante........332473 (29455)..,148 pax........89%
Almeria...........4559 (3473)....175 pax.........93%
Barcelona.......18303 (15378)..166 pax........91%
Girona...............nil (2478)
Ibiza.............12560 (13425)...141 pax.......87%
Mahon...........5627(6235)......166 pax.......85%
Malaga..........25576 (29555)...183 pax........92%
Murcia...........6436 (5669).....179 pax........95%
Palma...........25097 (24710)...157 pax........88%
Reus..............2555 (3681).....160 pax...... 84%
Arrecife........13391 (11379) incorrect split shown between schedule & IT
Fuerteventura 8001 (6674) incorrect split shown between schedule & IT
Las Palmas.....7620 (7693)...173 pax..........89%
Tenerife........19886 (15699) incorrect split shown between schedule & IT
Gothenburg....1356 (1305).....26 pax.........55%
Arlanda...........nil... (1171)...
Reykjavik........305 (o)..........44 pax.........50%
Zurich...........9435 (8769).....79 pax.........79%
Bodrum.........4550 (3389)....175 pax.........82%
Dalaman........9896(10326)...165 pax.........81%
Istanbul......11066 (10679)...129 pax.........82%
Kaunas.........2593 (2836)....162 pax.........86%
Bydgoscz......4605 (4001)....177 pax.........94%
Gdansk.........3074 (2582)....181 pax.........96%
Katowice......3252 (4224).....181 pax........96%
Krakow.........2844 (3013)....178 pax.........94%
Rzesnow......nil (3139)............
Bratislava.....4690 (4100).....175 pax.........93%
Hurghada......1371 (0).........180 pax.........80%
Sharm.........4075 (4408).....,163pax.........76%
Ashkhabad....4905 (3244)....144 pax.........76%
Dubai..........46033 (45085)...384 pax........90%
Delhi...........3130 (6327)
Amritsar.......3147 (nil)........176 pax..........69%
Islamabad....6228 (6869)......346 pax.........93%
Toronto.......1946 (1887)......243 pax.........91%
Newark........9033 (8967)....151 pax...........89%

Pete

[ATNotts]

September Route analysis

Looking at Pete's excellent statistical report a couple of things come to mind.

CGN's load factor isn't that much worse than HAJ - obviously yield is everything, but looking solely at the passenger numbers viability must be close run thing on CGN.

KEF was pretty bad, and it suggests that if Icelandair are to make anything of the route they are going to be relying really heavily on transatlantic connecting traffic, rather than point to point. Hopefully the American and Midlands business and leisure travelers will sign up to the idea of hubbing in Iceland.

CPH loads are pretty amazing, and suggests that their may be scope for a competing carrier on this route (Flybe perhaps)

Thinking of the FlyBe 2015 first release, we have to remember it is just that - a first release. Thinking back 12 months, the network for summer 2014 was much greater when it actually started than was suggested last autumn so it's not time for gloom and doom just yet!

[SNNUS]

AA BHX-JFK S15

[Skipness One Echo]

AA BHX-JFK S15

#nottwitter

*write more words*
Seems odd to be going into markets that need a B757, an airliner they're retiring at speed.

[bazzab68]

AA JFK

The word on the street is JFK daily 757. Possible be seasonal to start but we shall see.
If it comes off will certainly help silence bhx doubters, although still no real need for the extension as of yet...

Barry

[nigel osborne]

Would have preferred seasonal Chicago but at least it opes up One World for BHX.

Lets hope United stay around to NY too.


Naigel

[davebham]

Re One World - good point. Flew to LAX from LHR for a USA holiday this summer, then went LAX to BOS on AA and then BOS to LHR. Picked up a fair few Avios points but have resolutely told myself that is the last time I'm doing a USA holiday via Heathrow - but that means giving up the chance to accrue points.
So AA would be most welcome news for BHX.

If AA can hurry up and confirm, I can use them for next years holiday instead of United. Surely they wouldn't leave it too much later than now, as people start to book for next summer.

[OltonPete]

Winter 2014/5

Still some highlights even if as we have got closer things have deteriorated.

The good - Three new flybe routes tomorrow but none first-timers- Berlin, Oslo and Hamburg. The latter seems to full outbound per the booking engine.

Oslo I assume is not selling as well as daily has recently changed to Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Sunday. Like the removal of BOD this passed me by until today like another shocker l will mention later.

Ryanair Londonderry is to end on 18 November a tad early and I wonder now that flybe had a couple of gaps they can be persuaded to plug the hole?

Ryanair three based aircraft are very quiet and one does not depart until 10am each day.

The other shocker is United from 6 a week to 5 in January with Wednesday reinstated and Tuesday and Thursday removed (Westbound). To follow this is goes four a week for February without a flight for three days as Wednesday is removed as well.

Icelandair start Reykjavik on 5th Feb!

Paris sees the flybe 195 return and an Air France A320 on the morning service up from an A319.

Amsterdam should go all jet in the week and four a day by flybe making up for the loss of KL1423/3 mid morning. KLM do increase capacity on the first inbound to BHX to a 738.

Aer Lingus have increased Shannon from last winter to double daily and mainly AT72's plus added an A320 Dublin service on Thursday and Friday evening doubling up with EI276. The daily Stobart AT72 stays as well mid morning.

Extra frequencies from Monarch to Alicante, Hurghada and Las Palmas will help although Rome briefly stops in the New Year and Larnaca goes weekly for 4 weeks.

PIA are supposed to return to three a week but no sign of Air India going daily as yet.

IT looks okay with just one Thomson Las Palmas cancelled until Feb and Thomas Cook dropping a few seats when the A321 arrives in December but with what looks like two Freebird and the Thomson 787 here 6 days a week from Christmas it should be a reasonable winter other than the fact the runway is closed most nights due continued resurfacing.

Pete

[groundhogbhx]

Why is there this constant whining about the runway closure? It has been going on for as long as I can remember, and I started there 29 years ago! It happens every winter and will continue happening every winter so get used to it!

[Guest 112233]

Re OP's comments

As usual. Olton Pete's post is highly informative. Air India daily, all PR puff and nonsense. I suspect from a reputational point of view that within in the industry, the PR comming from this Airport Company may be doing it no favours - look at the miserable list of failures - Air Blue ?

Much more importantly; the cuts to EWR services in the winter are probably more damaging and this does not only apply to BHX. "You cannot fly from here to there today and yes we have no Banana's " must be a big disencentive to the high fare paying commercial passenger.

As for patterns of Travel to North America long term - That's one for the experts.

The figures suggest there's a thriving demand for the established shot/medium haul from the place + Dubai - A bit like say Glasgow a post industrial Victorian city. But in perspective look at the passenger growth from Bristol (CDG being a bit of blot !). A conerbation 1/3 of the size of Brum (with a geographiclly larger/ more prosperous catchmemt) handeling something like 60 % of Birmingham's passenger throughput with short runway.

Perhaps the operating Co should be happy to broaden the medium haul destination base and do not forget Luton down the M1. A facility less limited now by its shorter runway, with the comming of the New Boeings and Airbus Aircraft.

[ATNotts]

A conerbation 1/3 of the size of Brum (with a geographiclly larger/ more prosperous catchmemt)

I believe that in fact Bristol is a more affluent city than Birmingham by some measures, though the apauling road infrastructure, and lack of decent rail connection to the airport ought to be a disadvantage.

[OltonPete]

AN26

BBC News - RAF jets intercept Latvian cargo plane over Kent

One delayed cargo flight - oh dear!

All the talk on the radio on the way home was the loud bang over Kent....now we know.

flybe

Wednesday Berlin on the Dash 8 added for a couple dates in December and then weekly until the end of the winter season. Hopefully just a gap-filler for the aircraft but an increase as Wednesday was never in the winter schedule.

United

Back to daily....well for one week only for the school holidays. I think they have done this for the last couple of years

BMI Regional

E145 back on the Gothenburg the last couple of nights.

Pete

[JennyB]

Why is there this constant whining about the runway closure? It has been going on for as long as I can remember, and I started there 29 years ago! It happens every winter and will continue happening every winter so get used to it!

I hope it doesn't continue happening for half the year, every year.

Before it was for three weeks, Mon-Thu, a touch different to the balls up that there is now.

[splash&dash]

Winter runway closures 2014/5.
Airfield repair works traditionally happens every year during November night time periods. This is mainly the quietest time.
The extended closure period this winter is to finish the runway resurfacing works which should have been completed last winter but ran out of time due numerous reasons. There is still roughly a quarter of the northern part of the runway to be resurfaced / re-profiled, new LED lights in this area to be installed (hence runway 15 CAT1) and landscape / snagging work to be completed from last winters works. Yes, it is an inconvenience but the runway resurfacing project needs to be completed asap. Hopefully this winter night closures will be the last lengthy works and will then revert back to usual November night closures from then on for just random repairs / upgrades. Lets hope the weather is favourable this winter too.

[bazzab68]

Bhx JFK

All

Daily from 5th may. Seasonal only.

Great news!

Barry

[LAX_LHR]

Aa130 jfk1900 – 0710+1bhx 757 d
aa131 bhx1000 – 1255jfk 757 d

[davebham]

Fantastic news!

[OltonPete]

AA - JFK

I agree good news, there should be enough pax to go round with United and it is only seasonable.

SNNUS - Kudos. Not even the a.nutters on another forum had a sniff of this one although most of them have probably only heard of the one in Alabama

flybe

More changes with Milan reducing to daily (most days until mid Feb) with early morning Tuesday and Thursday which is now the Hanover aircraft as that reduces from double daily in the week to two flights a day only on Mon, Wed Fri.

All very sensible in winter.

Pete

[insuindi]

@oltonpete

doesn't HAJ become double daily Mo Thu Fri? in which case MXP on Thu must be some other aircraft.

[OltonPete]

Hanover

insuindi

Correct, Thursday is double daily not Wednesday.

Not sure how they have re-arranged it all with so many late changes.

I can't believe it but not only have they added a Wednesday Berlin on the Dash 8 they have now added a 5th Amsterdam on a Thursday with a Dash 8.

Aberdeen at times is only 4 daily on a Monday - this schedule has been messed with so many times I have lost count. This on top of the Oslo reduction (7>4), Bordeaux cancellation (4>0), Florence increase (4>5), Hamburg decrease (7>6) and Toulouse decrease (7>6>5).

Head-spinning.

Pete