Ryanair - 9

[Winniebago]

Originally Posted by FQTLSteve

This doesn't just involve flights from UK to EU 27 it will affect all EU rest of world agreements, for example the EU US open skies. The UK will cease to be able to operate under these agreements immediately if nothing is done. The ECJ oversees all EU commercial aviation regulations. The complexity is IMHO on top of everything else, is too much and will overwhelm UK Gov.

...and you know what might scupper any negotiated agreement at the end of the day? Gibraltar. The EU27 will stand united in support of Spain, who by the way represent 25% of our intra-EU passenger traffic. This will be one enormous pile of you know what...

[116d]

Originally Posted by virginblue

Always useful to give some context - this is what he really said:

"“The sensible outcome here is to ignore the plebiscite of 12 months ago, stay in Europe and continue to benefit from Open Skies.”

This as he gave a EU Parliament committee in a session titled "Brexit in aviation: Perspective of the Airlines and Tourism Industry" his views on the effects of Brexit. The session was also attended by Willie Walsh (somewhat more optimistic) and top brass from Airbus (concerned about moving staff and components), TUI (pretty much echoing O'Leary), Lufthansa (blabbering about the ME and missing the point) and Airlines of America (warning of the consequences for the TATL JV).

Some quotes from what MOL said:

"This is going to be a real mess. Brexit will be one of the great economic suicide notes in history."

"There is not a legal mechanism on which airlines can operate in a 'hard Brexit, no deal' outcome. There will simply be no flights"

“There is a real prospect, and we need to deal with this, that there are going to be no flights between the UK and Europe for a period of weeks, months beyond March 2019."

““There is not going to be an interim agreement, there is not going to be a legal basis, we will be cancelling flights. We will be cancelling people’s holidays for summer of 2019.”

"I am not sure the Brits, who like their holidays in spain fancy Karachi" (talking about a remark by a senior Brexit minister who had allegedly told him the lost European airline traffic could be made up through a bilateral agreement with Pakistan)

“By September 2018 when your average British voter is sitting down to work out where he is going on his holidays in 2019, the two options he will have are to drive to Scotland or get a ferry to Ireland”

What was interesting was his swipes about a lack of goodwill within the EU towards the UK being a barrier towards a deal and accusations of France and Germany doing one over the UK when given an opportunity.

Link: Ryanair boss: ?No flights? between UK and EU after Brexit

Obviously the UK hasn't covered itself in glory, but still interesting nonetheless.

Regardless of O'Leary's history of comments in the media, he's not stupid and comes across as someone who's concerned about the impact Brexit is going to have on his business, especially when you look beyond his quotes to pivot growth away from the UK and not base new aircraft here. Isn't it about 100-odd of their fleet based in UK airports and about a third of its business involving the UK (either flights to/from the UK or domestic UK flights)?

[virginblue]

Problem really is that in airline planning terms, there are only 9 months left to have everything resolved as flights for April 2019 are usually bookable 360 days in advance, i.e. from April 2018 (and even before on some LCCs). The resulting turn-over from those early sales is most probably factored into cash-flow planning of those airlines, so you cannot simply say "so what, this time we will open advance booking just 90 days in advance".

So the likes of Boris Johnson should stop smirking and being smug, but actually start working on the thousands of issues big and small that need to be resolved to avoid a car-crash scenario.

[AerRyan]

Or do what all airlines do, allow bookings, and the discontinue booking closer to the time if a resolution has not been made. Few people book a flight that's a year away.

Also, I can't see any Ryanair routes for sale for next summer.

[racedo]

Originally Posted by fairflyer

The fear is that the UK government will use access to UK market for aviation as a bargaining chip in their armory of 'bargaining chips' and therefore what we end up with will be unresolved and unclear until the 11th hour and 59th minute, at best.

Then goodbye to the need for a new runway at Heathrow...............

[racedo]

Originally Posted by 116d

What was interesting was his swipes about a lack of goodwill within the EU towards the UK being a barrier towards a deal and accusations of France and Germany doing one over the UK when given an opportunity.

Surprises me not at all.

He may be the one shouting loudest but given that WW of IAG was also at said meeting he indicated nothing to disagree with MOL.

IAG will find itself impacted as well given EU Ownership rules, EU airline had to be over 50% EU owned.................... UK will I believe want to operate same criteria.

[virginblue]

Originally Posted by AerRyan

Or do what all airlines do, allow bookings, and the discontinue booking closer to the time if a resolution has not been made.

I think the outcry is quite different if a couple of flights are involved or thousands of flights.

The main issue, however, is that the airlines will not want to have aircraft sit idle on the ground. So at some point when they cannot plan ahead they will need to enact a Plan B - and once that plan is implemented, no capacity will be left that could be redirected when the ship of fools in Downing Street come to a last minute solution. Hence MOL remark that they will shift capacity away from the UK at some point.

Originally Posted by AerRyan

Few people book a flight that's a year away.

There is always a group of people who book as soon as flights are released. Hence the frequent question "When will airline X release its winter/summer schedule"?

Originally Posted by AerRyan

Also, I can't see any Ryanair routes for sale for next summer.

That's why MOL was mentioning September 2018. However, most airlines release flights 360 days in advance. Try BA, for example.

[inOban]

I think only longhaul legacy carriers do. The European shorthaul LCCs operate to a much shorter, more flexible timescale.

[fairflyer]

Originally Posted by inOban

I think only longhaul legacy carriers do. The European shorthaul LCCs operate to a much shorter, more flexible timescale.

Yes, however, the schedule planning kicks off well over a year ahead of release of schedules - in many cases up to 18 months ahead of first flight.

[inOban]

Planning yes, release no. And with the uncertainty over Italia, there must be some short-term contingency planning going on...

[virginblue]

I think only longhaul legacy carriers do. The European shorthaul LCCs operate to a much shorter, more flexible timescale.

Almost all non-LCC do.

LCCs tend to open bookings later, but not much more. Ryanair and Eurowings most recently opened booking for winter 17/18 in early March, i.e. 7 1/2 months before. easyjet in the past up to 11 months. However, they do not start scheduling only a week before they open bookings.

[racedo]

Twitter user who made anonymous bomb threat against Ryanair must pay ?200k in damages - Independent.ie

Nice win here and Twitter user should now be on US No Fly list so guess he will never get to Europe.

[AerRyan]

Always have QM2!

[racedo]

Originally Posted by AerRyan

Always have QM2!

Lol
After paying that fare even the Woolwich Ferry would be expensive............

[AerRyan]

Not as expensive as the settlement they have to pay Ryanair!

I love outcomes like this, people get away with too much.

[PAXboy]

Interesting:
Ryanair wins £220,000 from Twitter user who posted terror threat | The Independent

Every character in Brian Lake’s 130-character tweet has cost him £1,700

[Metro man]

£55 000 in costs and legal fees for Ryanair. A worthwhile investment, assuming it won't be recovered, even if it only makes one other idiot think twice from pulling a stunt like this.

This amount pales in comparison to the cost of a real incident with aircraft grounded and massive disruptions.

Definitely a new addition to the no fly list.

[Sober Lark]

Bad publicity on Ryanair's random seat fiasco must be generating a lot of negative energy for them and hurting their brand. Wish it wasn't the case.

[AerRyan]

Ah here, have you seen the 'bad publicity' (AKA O'Learys good publicity) Ryanair has had through the years?

[PPRuNeUser0176]

Bad publicity on Ryanair's random seat fiasco must be generating a lot of negative energy for them and hurting their brand. Wish it wasn't the case.

It's been in the media for around 6 weeks and now sign of slowing down and they appear to be getting more irritated when been questioned about it by media or even people online.