After some speculation earlier in the year about them acquiring baby and BMIr, does anyone know where they stand to this day ??? Just curious that is all after looking at their website on the wayback machine, it all looked so, so promising !
1. The European economy is toast, especially in South Wales. 2. No-one, but no-one, is interested in funding a start up anything in this economy, let alone an airline. 3. There are now very real question marks over the future of CWL. 4. There are few real growth opportunities at other UK airports. 5. The imminent collapse of the Euro will make everything sharply worse.
I fear your history with a certain Welsh airline and old knowings of Cardiff is likely clouding your judgement. Your views are a little... extreme...
1. The European economy is toast, especially in South Wales.
2. No-one, but no-one, is interested in funding a start up anything in this economy, let alone an airline.
3. There are now very real question marks over the future of CWL.
4. There are few real growth opportunities at other UK airports.
5. The imminent collapse of the Euro will make everything sharply worse.
1) The South Wales economy is growing and has displayed growth figures over the past 3 years but has also produced growing unemployment figures at the same time. But industrial output remains on growth. 2) Well, start-up investments are becoming more common over this past 12 months especially. But getting it is no doubt harder. 3) There aren't 'real' questions over the future of CWL. The CWL management from what I can draw seem to be actively trying to raise routes from their airport. But it's a difficult market with BRS just up the roads. But a valuable asset as Wales' major airport. 4) This is another debatable point. There are many growth opportunities from UK airports, but the problem is that they're not well served by a Bus or Boeing operated by the loco's. This is where the likes of Eastern have succeeded in operating multiple daily rotations on routes which one would suggest wouldn't make sense with multiple daily rotations. 5) Not going to debate this, it is on the brink of collapse. Which will have some affect on business being conducted in Europe.
Is this designed to be a thread to test your puerile sense of humour?
Why not check Companies House?
Your expectations of spotter clubs are rather high
Your expectations of spotter clubs are rather high
A fair comment, I did giggle at it
I'd put the rest in context. I would say that there really are serious question marks over Cardiff Airport, sadly. Current throughput of pax stands at 1.2 MPPA, with a TOTAL leakage to BRS of around 700 KPPA - even assuming that all that leakage can be stopped (which would require all the BRS routes to be introduced from CWL), the total throughput is still stubbornly below 2 MPPA - which is not critical mass for the airport. I would imagine the airport is currently profitable - marginally - so there is currently absolutely no incentive for the airport's owners to sell it, especially when the realisable value is likely to be so far adrift from the book value - but as the property market recovers? Jury is out. If there were no 'real' questions over the future of the place, why is the First Minister setting up an enquiry to debate same?
The airport is only a valuable asset if it is exploited - right now, it isn't.
The local economy is massively over-dependent on the public sector, which is going to be the bogey man of the Government for years to come. Growth is sluggish at best, and as you rightly note, unemployment is going very much the wrong way. That doesn't sound good for any airline wanted to invest there.
You may well be right about niche operators. That's not my pitch. But in terms of what FFB were trying to achieve, where would you go to get critical mass? Just CWL? BRS is out, U2 and FR have that one sewn up. Forget the South East. Midlands is out, U2 and Spotty M are in like Flynn. All points North? Jet2. I just cannot see any room for a new mass market operator in the UK unless someone else fails.
Re start ups - yes, some money is available for some start ups. But for a jet operation that is going to need fat end of £50m? No. Just no. Unless of course some operator sees something the rest of us have missed, or who have struck kerosene in their back garden, or have pilots who will pay to fly, or have won a raffle to win four A320s....
I admire your enthusiasm TA, but as JCSL points out, employment is on the rise within South Wales which is good news. I have always been an advocate of 'The Market is there'. This is clearly evident with the MON/Cosmos route launch on Monday, which was a brilliant occasion for all at CWL, whilst attracting a fair share of passengers for a route which was only launched in December, operated by an airline which has no brand identity in South Wales, which will grow after a few months of operation of SFB.
I am sure that FFB are still out there ! According to Companies House as you state TA, Flyforbeans limited is dissolved, but Flyforbeans Aviation Limited is still active.
By the way, i believe that only the valleys are dependant on the Public Sector. The city region is mainly private with a few public institutions, then the Vale of Glam which is also largely private companies. In Wales we have loads of small businesses that are doing well. If they were to grow then South Wales could be a very, very prosperous region indeed. Apart from the 'benefit' culture merthyr tydfil which does not really hold up much hope !
No, both JSCL and I agree that unemployment is RISING, not falling.
Monarch's brand identity in South Wales doesn't add up to a bucket of spit - it could have been operated by Air Botswana, since the passengers were IT - so had no choice of operator.
As someone who was raised in South Wales, and has spent a lot of money analysing the market there - I can tell you that you are wrong about the composition - the Welsh fiscal gap is north of £10bn, which wouldn't happen if the private sector was doing well.
According to the ONS, the public sector is responsible for 23% of UK jobs (22.8% of GB jobs). Cardiff, that great private sector powerhouse? 26.4% public sector. And the Vale of Glamorgan - 28.1% public sector.
For completeness over 40% of jobs in Merthyr are in the public sector. I am struggling to see ANYWHERE in Wales where the percentage of the workforce employed by the public sector is lower - or even close to - the UK average.
Hmm i do see your points, but the last time that employment figures had been released, the number of unemployed had decreased by 32,000 or something like that. And yes i keep forgetting that Monarch are operating the flight on behalf of Cosmos. Monarch still sell through their website too though.
The way forward for CWL is to get a based low-cost carrier, something like Flyforbeans offers ! If the prices are right, and cheaper than at BRS and BHX, then the potential catchment is rather large for such routes. Just need someone to dip into the water, and find out for themselves. Baby was doing well until the winter months, and many believe that if they based more aircraft at CWL then it would have been much more profitable than it was.
No, the way forward is for Cardiff to prove there is a serious and sustainable market. Until it does that, no-one is going to go there, least of all a start up.
Right now, I just don't believe that the market is big enough - or rich enough - and that comes not from gut feel, or wishing upon a star, or reading the entrails from black and white chickens - but cold, hard facts and numbers.
Welsh unemployment fell by 1,000 in the first quarter, but that is not the seasonally adjusted number - and in any case, unemployment is a proxy variable. Across the UK unemployment in Q1 fell by 45,000 - which is way more proportionally that it did in Wales....
'Just needs someone to dip their toe in the water' - with your £50m? Airlines, especially start ups, don't 'dip their toe in the water' - they invest after a lot of research. Right now, they don't like the answers.
Cardiff has a massive seasonality problem - baby would have gone far far earlier if they had based more aircraft in CWL. I suspect the 'many who believe' otherwise have no clue about airline economics.
But as we can have discussed, AirGuru, there are demands for the small regional markets and whilst not as popular the use of 19-50 seater prop routes are where further development might appear in UK airports. It's impossible for Flyforbeans as a start-up to achieve the necessary structure to begin as a low cost Easy or Ryanair style. What you need to redirect your focus from is wanting the big boys and their summer routes to the regional operators who provide links to vital industrial cities which would also present employment opportunities for the south of Wales.
Now is NOT the time for a major UK start-up to enter the loco sector. If it works, someone will try and move in, that's business. If it becomes proven to work at CWL, Ryanair or Easyjet will think 'jobs a good un' and move in on Flyforbeans. Now is just NOT the time.
The many who believed were from a well informed aviation source, that i read somewhere. I endeavour to find it for you once my exams are complete in around 3 weeks time.
So how do you see there being a way to prove the market ? Only way i can see to do that is to launch services, hence the 'dipping your toes in the water' ?
Delta obviously thought there was some sort of market when they went to launch a JFK route just before the Ryder Cup. They wouldnt waste an aircraft even if it was state funded. I believe they even went as far as securing slots, but hey thats not too difficult at CWL at the minute !
No it wasn't WAN, as i say i will find it for you once i have more time on my hands. I don't really have much of a clue as to how much it costs to initiate research, but i know that state funding is illegal, which is why most of it is given in terms of marketing etc. which is what the DL route would have consisted of.
I still believe a low-cost carrier based at the airport has all of the solutions for CWL. Sun Routes have always been really popular with BCN having a decent first month of operations. So there is a certain market there, and as you say it is very niche and in severe contrast to that at BRS. In order for something to be successful though, you need to be rivalling EZY's and FR's fares over the bridge. Something which Vueling manages to do on every occasion !
I'll put money on this being the first and last season. Vueling is a low cost - unless it can hit the 75%-80% mark, they won't be in CWL.
A low cost at Cardiff is going to be competing nose to nose with U2 and FR. Both have massive networks, huge brand recognition, and thanks to the economies of scale, lower fares. The fact that fares from CWL are lower than the equivalent fares from BRS is NOT good news - someone is discounting hard, and airlines don't do that unless they need to.
The DL support was not marketing based; it was planned to be in the form of loss underwriting. That would be a fun test case.... if it were paid, it would look to me like a breach of the rules, and if I were say BA, I would be calling uncle. With a lot of justification as well.
If the market is as niche as you say, listen to JSCL and start a turboprop operator with higher fares. Forget a low cost - low costs need volume, and right now, Wales doesn't seem to have any load that isn't going via BRS....
Vueling's load was 48% for the month TA, which i believe is half decent for the time of year i.e, being april, and considering it is the first month of operations, where the airline has had to gain brand identity and all that. It will probably be seasonal on all services to be honest though, BCN, PMI and ALC.
Alex Cruz said initially that they intend to stay at CWL not for just one season, that being a quote from himself. So, Vueling will be back for Summer 2013 i believe. Also, they chose CWL over both SOU and EDI for their first UK-BCN flight (discarding the EDI ones back in 2007). They must have had confidence from somewhere. I will put a bet on vueling achieving good loads throughout the Summer season i.e being May, June, July and August. PMI and ALC are supposedly looking good, with BCN holding up well also. So to put it your way is a tad harsh.
Attracting new routes is always fun - lots of press and a big cake on launch day.
Is there anything really wrong howevere with just trying to improve existing business operations ? Could CWL do anything better ? Any way to reduce airline costs while maintaining service levels ? Perhaps something to boost loads on existing routes ? Etc etc
I would have difficulty believing Cardiff is already run perfectly - make existing stuff better and you can make a far better impression when an airline becomes receptive to opening new routes or upsizing aircraft on current routes.