New Thames Airport for London

[silverstrata]

fairdeal frank.

Silver, you wouldn't get Albert Speer in isolation just on an infrastructure improvement drive, you would get the whole package. So be very careful what you wish for......

Oh, so it was ok for the West to take Werner von Braun and 150 of his rocketry engineers, but it is not ok to take an architect !! I think the architect would have been of more economic use, both to the US and the UK.

Perhaps you have forgotten the old adage:

Q. I say, I say, I say, why did the Americans beat the Russians to the Moon?
A. Because America's Germans were better than Russia's Germans.


It was a hypocritical policy, I agree, but pragmatic and very effective.

Silver.

[silverstrata]

fairdeal

Yes, that is the critical point: where the carriers and pax, especially premium pax, want to fly from.

Fly through, Frank, fly through.

I keep telling you that the heart of these large national airports is the ability to interline from regional airports (and train stations), through the national hub, and on to locations all around the world. So the actual location of the new Silver-Boris hub-airport is not as critical as you think. A TGV line to London is the only real essential, although TGV lines to the north and west would be handy.

Why do you think that AMS is so large, when the Netherlands is so small? Every time i pass through there, the majority appear to be Brits interlining through from Bristol, Glasgow and Newcastle, because it is easier to go to AMS than trying to crawl your way down to LHR. And that is all revenue that is lost to UK carriers, lost to the City of London, and lost to UK PLC.

Someone needs to get a grip on UK aviation planning, before it sinks without trace. Where is Albert Speer, when you need him??


Silver

[fireflybob]

Why do you think that AMS is so large, when the Netherlands is so small? Every time i pass through there, the majority appear to be Brits interlining through from Bristol, Glasgow and Newcastle, because it is easier to go to AMS than trying to crawl your way down to LHR. And that is all revenue that is lost to UK carriers, lost to the City of London, and lost to UK PLC.

It's also a way of avoiding the punitive UK Airline Passenger Duty on the long haul part of the journey.

[Skipness One Echo]

Again, the plaintive cry for his favourite.......Nazi town planner?

Someone does need to get a grip and with T2 at LHR open and runway 3 going to be approved whether you like it or not, progress is being made. Crossrail is also added into the mix as well, none of this coming cheaply.

Also, the budget deficit went *up* last month so do please let us know when you start *****ing gold bullion to pay for all of this amazing new infrastructure.

[DaveReidUK]

and runway 3 going to be approved whether you like it or not

Do you have inside information on the result of next year's election, as well ?

[Fairdealfrank]

Q. I say, I say, I say, why did the Americans beat the Russians to the Moon?
A. Because America's Germans were better than Russia's Germans.

Or to be more accurate:

Q. I say, I say, I say, why did the Americans beat the Russians to "Area 51" Nevada?
A. Because America's Germans were better than Russia's Germans.

On a more serious note, the USA probably had plenty of architects, but not so many rocket scientists.

Fly through, Frank, fly through.

Through, to or from....it makes no difference.

Actually, at LHR, only about 30% are connecting pax flying through.

I keep telling you that the heart of these large national airports is the ability to interline from regional airports (and train stations), through the national hub, and on to locations all around the world. So the actual location of the new Silver-Boris hub-airport is not as critical as you think. A TGV line to London is the only real essential, although TGV lines to the north and west would be handy.

A TGV line isn't going to happen, the government does not have the cash. The government have made it clear that even a short spur from the Ruislip/Northolt section of HS2 to LHR is not going to happen.

LHR expansion, on the other hand, is a good business case and would be privately financed.

The best place for the "new Silver-Boris hub-airport" is (obviously) at LHR.

Why do you think that AMS is so large, when the Netherlands is so small?

Because of KL's policy of handling large numbers of transfer pax (over 70%) at AMS. A policy followed by SQ, FI, EK, etc., on various scales. It's the only way a small country can have a large carrier.

Every time i pass through there, the majority appear to be Brits interlining through from Bristol, Glasgow and Newcastle, because it is easier to go to AMS than trying to crawl your way down to LHR. And that is all revenue that is lost to UK carriers, lost to the City of London, and lost to UK PLC.

Thank you, Silver, for making my point for me, it's much appreciated!

This situation exists precisely because of the failure to expand LHR, a policy which, directly or indirectly, has seen the demise of many UK carriers.

Because LHR did not expand when it should have (1970s onwards) the number of domestic connections declined, and because of an open skies policy between the UK and the Netherlands since 1984, KL was able to fill the gap.

It saw an opportunity and took advantage. In 2014, LHR is connected to just 7 UK airports; AMS (and DUB) to well over 20.

As you say, this was and is revenue lost to UK carriers, to the City of London, to UK PLC as well as the wider UK economy.

It's also a way of avoiding the punitive UK Airline Passenger Duty on the long haul part of the journey.

Only if the journey is broken for at least 24 hours, and who wouldn't want 24 hours in Amsrerdam?, or separate bookings are made (with the consequent loss of checked through luggage and missed connection protection).

Someone does need to get a grip and with T2 at LHR open and runway 3 going to be approved whether you like it or not, progress is being made. Crossrail is also added into the mix as well, none of this coming cheaply.

With all the new infrastructure built or under construction, it would be crazy not to approve LHR expansion, but don't hold your breath.

The flock of pigs is still flying overhead......

[silverstrata]

Skippy

Also, the budget deficit went *up* last month so do please let us know when you start *****ing gold bullion to pay for all of this amazing new infrastructure.

If your dear Gordon Brown had not sold all out gold at the bottom of the market, we may have had some money for infrastructure projects. In addition, Brown managed to spend an additional £500 billion in ten years, over and above our national income, and what did we get for it? What new infrastructure came out of this spending spree?

Oh, yes, we got another 4 million mouths to feed, and to support in their old age. I think every Labour supporter should be taxed an extra £5,000 every year, to make up for Brown's blunders.

Silver

[Skipness One Echo]

He's not my Gordon Brown thanks. Perhaps you should jet back fron sunny LA? I assume you pay no tax to HMG?

You're ideas on taxing people who you disagree are yet another example of letting of steam without presenting a practical alternative. We are where we are, we must deal with what we have and any energy fighting the battles of yesteryear should be saved for the retirement home.

[Fairdealfrank]

Oh, yes, we got another 4 million mouths to feed, and to support in their old age. I think every Labour supporter should be taxed an extra £5,000 every year, to make up for Brown's blunders.

Don't expect that there are many Labour supporters left, many now appear to be supporting UKIP or not bothering to vote. Guess we'll find out next May.

Doesn't Blair bear any responsibility for the actions of the new Labour government?

Either way it's not the brightest of comments, must be a wind-up(?).

[silverstrata]

Contacted

Most people know, in their hearts, that LHR needs to become a 4-Runway, 24hr airport, if we want to keep up with the Rest. Who is going to make it happen?

And therein lies the whole problem.

Yes, this is indeed what we need, but it cannot happen and will not happen. LHR does not have enough room, expanding the airport will create too much noise, and there are no decent train connections. Unless, of course, you employ strategic thinking, rather than populist democracy, and bulldoze much of W London. Where is Albert Speer, when you need him?

This is the whole reason for the Silver-Boris estuary debate.

Fairdeal

Doesn't Bliar bear any responsibility for the actions of the new Labour government?

There you go, fixed that for you - (you spelt his name wrong).

Anyway, his real name was always Miranda. He was named after a moon, which says all you need to know about the recent police investigations in Westminster (and why these police investigations will fail).

Clarissa Dickson Wright: Confessions of One Fat Lady | Mail Online

But with all of these furtive shenanigans going on in Westminster, did anyone have their eye on the ball (well, perhaps they did !). Is it any wonder that no decisions about Heathrow, nuclear power, HS rail etc: etc:, were ever made by the Bliar government? I don't think anyone in the Bliar government was interested in governing the nation - not one of them.

Fairdeal

Actually, at LHR, only about 30% are connecting pax flying through.

Which says everything you need to know about Heathrow.

Heathrow cannot increase its interlining connecting pax, because it has a very restricted domestic (European) network of regional aircraft for pax to interline onto. Any sensible interlinear will go to AMS, or if they are desperate perhaps CDG.

Again, London is losing out because LHR is completely full and has no capacity or network for interlining pax (and no decent rail system either).


Silver

[Fairdealfrank]

There you go, fixed that for you - (you spelt his name wrong).

A mere "typo" Silver, thanks for fixing it!

Heathrow cannot increase its interlining connecting pax, because it has a very restricted domestic (European) network of regional aircraft for pax to interline onto.

The much required expansion would resolve that. Also, other carriers would move in as a result resolving the problem you mention: very restricted domestic (European) network of regional aircraft for pax to interline onto.

Any sensible interlinear will go to AMS, or if they are desperate perhaps CDG.

Not CDG unless it's one hell of a lot cheaper!

Again, London is losing out because LHR is completely full and has no capacity or network for interlining pax (and no decent rail system either).

Exactly.

The three options of the Davis Commission are (in no particular order):

(1) a second parallel rwy at LGW - this doesn't address the UK hub airport capacity crunch issue;

(2) extending 09L/27R to operate it as two rwys - this involves the ending of segrgated mode and alternation and is therefore a non-starter;

(3) the "north west" rwy option proposed by Heathrow management.

Silver Island is not on the short list, for obvious reasons.

I totally disagree that 4 runways and H24 cannot happen. It can happen, and must happen, if we want to keep up with the 'Rest'.
Once people come to accept that 4 runways and 24hr Ops on an expanded LHR site is the only realistic solution, then the REAL technical discussion can start on it's implementation and how to mitigate the noise problem. There is so much to discuss on thissubject. A national rail hub should also be part of the solution.

Agree with all that except the concept of 24 hour operations. As with the ending of segregated mode and alternation, it is a non-starter.

We can keep up with and pass the "rest" with expansion without 24 hour operations.

[DaveReidUK]

(2) extending 09L/27R to operate it as two rwys - this involves the ending of segregated mode and alternation and is therefore a non-starter;

(3) the "north west" rwy option proposed by Heathrow management.

If ending segregated mode is a show-stopper, then that would also apply to the NW runway option.

Communities under the current 09L and 27R approaches would lose any alternation respite and those under the current 09R/27L approaches, 50% of theirs.

[Fairdealfrank]

If ending segregated mode is a show-stopper, then that would also apply to the NW runway option.

Communities under the current 09L and 27R approaches would lose any alternation respite and those under the current 09R/27L approaches, 50% of theirs.

AFAIK, with the north west (or north option) of 3 parallel rwys, the intention is to keep segregated mode on 2 rwys and mixed mode on 1 rwy at any one time. However, the rwy operating on mixed mode would be rotated so it wouldn't be the newest one on mixed mode all the time.

Respite for flightpath residents would be reduced (from 50% of the time to 33% of the time), but not eliminated.

Extending 09L/27R to operate it as two rwys involves the elimination of segregated mode and alternation altogether, otherwise there would be an insufficient increase in capacity compared to the above-mentioned pattern.

As a result, there would be no respite at all, and that is why (apart from any technical or safety issues that may arise) it is a non-starter.

With 4 parallel rwys of course, respite for flightpath residents would remain at 50% of the time (despite there being more of them) as there would be no mixed mode required.

It's a good job that aircraft are becoming increasingly quieter.

[DaveReidUK]

Respite for flightpath residents would be reduced (from 50% of the time to 33% of the time), but not eliminated.

Apologies, I was misreading the chart. In a 3-runway configuration, the two outer runways (the new NW one and the current 09R/27L) would be used as folllows:

50% of the time in mixed mode
25% of the time in segregated mode for arrivals
25% of the time in segregated mode for departures

So alternation respite would be reduced from 50% of the time to 25% (not 33%) of the time.

[PAXboy]

"New Thames Airport for London"
or not?
BBC News - Boris Island airport plan 'to be rejected'

[Bagso]

I thought the whole point was to confirm LHR but make the decision after the election ?

It's becoming somewhat academic anyway.

[ETOPS]

Come on Fairdealfrank and silverstrata - we're waiting

[silverstrata]

Don't write off the Silver-Boris Thames Airport just yet. A week is a long time in politics, and there are several months to go, before the next election.

The point is, that Boris is viscerally opposed to the expansion of LHR or LGW, and will fight this absurd decision tooth and nail:

Boris Johnson brands decision to dump Thames airport plan 'myopic' and 'irrelevant'.
Boris Johnson brands decision to dump Thames airport plan 'myopic' and 'irrelevant' - Telegraph


There are several scenarios that could bring the Silver-Boris airport back to the political table. Here are two:

a. Scotland votes to become independent.
b. Camoron is forced to stand down as prime minister (the prime minister who destroyed the United Kingdom.)
c. Boris is elected to Parliament in 2015.
d. Boris becomes prime minister.
e. Boris says we need a Silver-Boris airport.
f. Work begins on Silver-Boris in 2016.


a. Scotland remains in the Union.
b. Scottish Labour MPs and popular UKIP opposition will prevent a Conservative victory at the next election.
c. So Camoron agrees a deal with UKIP, to give UKIP 40 seats in government.
d. Boris is elected as MP, as Camoron's only remaining 'big-gun'.
e. However, anti-Camoron Tories combine with new UKIP MPs to oust Camoron and make Boris prime minister.
f. Boris agrees to this political coup, only if Farage will back his plan for a Silver-Boris airport.
g. Work begins on Silver-Boris in 2016.


Silver

[PAXboy]

and STILL they will have to:

• ramp through a law for compulsory purchase of the entire LHR shooting match
• find a way to pay off every single carrier to move and underwrite their losses
• deal with the anger of a very considerable number of companies
• deal with the anger of an even greater number of voters

I could go on but ...

[Fairdealfrank]

Come on Fairdealfrank and silverstrata - we're waiting

OK here goes. Well done Airports Commission, now all we need is for them to recommend 2 more parallel rwys at LHR.

Don't write off the Silver-Boris Thames Airport just yet. A week is a long time in politics, and there are several months to go, before the next election.

The point is, that Boris is viscerally opposed to the expansion of LHR or LGW, and will fight this absurd decision tooth and nail:

Boris Johnson brands decision to dump Thames airport plan 'myopic' and 'irrelevant'.

Yes, of course he does. To quote Mandy Rice-Davis of Profumo scandal fame: "well he would, wouldn't he".

There are several scenarios that could bring the Silver-Boris airport back to the political table. Here are two:

Amazed that the Scottish vote could determine the fate of Silver Island, whichever way it goes. Look forward to reading this fantasy.

a. Scotland votes to become independent.
b. Camoron is forced to stand down as prime minister (the prime minister who destroyed the United Kingdom.)
c. Boris is elected to Parliament in 2015.
d. Boris becomes prime minister.
e. Boris says we need a Silver-Boris airport.
f. Work begins on Silver-Boris in 2016.

Option one: Scotland votes "yes".
The government resigns and Cameron, Miliband and Clegg signal their intention to also resign as party leaders.

The Queen asks Miliband if he can form a government that commands a majority in the Commons, he says no, the Queen dissolves Parliament and a general election takes place in October or November.

The level of UKIP support (even if it fails to win a seat) will determine the election result - probably a hung Parliament and a minority government.

Boris is elected in a constituency with half the workforce working on the airport and more aircraft noise from NHT than LHR.

Boris goes very quiet on the subject of Silver Island as his priority is now becoming prime minister at sometime in the future.

The Airports Commission publishes it's findings several months earlier than anticipated.

Silver Island sinks.

a. Scotland remains in the Union.
b. Scottish Labour MPs and popular UKIP opposition will prevent a Conservative victory at the next election.
c. So Camoron agrees a deal with UKIP, to give UKIP 40 seats in government.
d. Boris is elected as MP, as Camoron's only remaining 'big-gun'.
e. However, anti-Camoron Tories combine with new UKIP MPs to oust Camoron and make Boris prime minister.
f. Boris agrees to this political coup, only if Farage will back his plan for a Silver-Boris airport.
g. Work begins on Silver-Boris in 2016.


Silver

Option two: Scotland votes "no".
Cameron, Miliband and Clegg breath a huge sigh of relief as does much of the country, and deliberations on "devo-max" start.

UKIP win the by-election in Clacton(?). If so, Conservatives and Labour start panicking again, if not, another huge sigh of relief.

Lame duck government limps on until next May, concentrating its efforts on getting the "devo-max" legislation passed with everything else on the backburner. UKIP support rises as it wins local government by-elections.

The level of UKIP support (even if it fails to win a seat) will determine the election result - probably a hung Parliament and a minority government.

Boris is elected in a constituency with half the workforce working on the airport and more aircraft noise from NHT than LHR.

Boris goes very quiet on the subject of Silver Island as his priority is now becoming prime minister at sometime in the future.

The Airports Commission publishes it's findings on schedule.

Silver Island sinks.



Over to you, Silver.