I have opened this new Ryanair thread due to Ryanair-7 being closed, I think due to an error, the last post most if not all of us could see was from the 28thOct ... so what did we miss ? anything ?
Barcelona base goes to 8 aircraft as of today. UK bases all dramatically cut excluding Edinburgh and Leeds. Edinburgh has as many flights today as in the summer if not more by looking at the BAA website, however a lot of flights now operated from other bases. The damaging £12 APD is obviously having it's effects felt across most UK airports.
An interesting winter expansion has been at Gothenburg City, lots of new flights for the winter schedule.
The only thing crazy is the lack of Ski flights this year, Grenoble isn't being operated from nearly every UK base as it was in the past 2 years.
Malaga seems to have lost a lot of flights, surprisingly so as I would have thought very low frequencies to Germany/Scandinavia would have worked well this winter.
The base announcements have gone quiet as of late, still expecting TFS/LPA/ACE/PMI/CPH/LIS all to be in the running with maybe TLL aswell. It will be interesting to see what the summer schedule will look like once released in the next few months.
£12 APD is only a small rise of £1, the big changes are to long haul. I would expect Easyjet and Ryanair may even gain from the changes as people in the UK fky to spain or italy instead of US or Aus.
The base announcements have gone quiet as of late, still expecting TFS/LPA/ACE/PMI/CPH/LIS all to be in the running with maybe TLL Oswell. It will be interesting to see what the summer schedule will look like once released in the next few months.
Ryanair summer 2011 to be on sale over the next week or two. Around half of DUB summer 2011 went on sale on Friday.
Lisbon as a base should be announced shortly as the only problem with it is the FR want to use the domestic terminal to achieve the 25min turnaround which can't be done in the International terminal.
CPH were giving FR a €20 discount per passenger and FR are still not happy about it.
As for Gothenburg I think a base will be there sometime during 2011
Quote:
Malaga seems to have lost a lot of flights,
Malaga will have 2 a/c based for the winter compared to 4 in the summer.
Most routes that are operating for summer 2011 show as operating but no yet bookable but LDY - ALC shows nothing. With an average load factor of 75% it dosn't look good as Ryanair like the load factors to be over 84%.
Might as well post today's half year results highlights!
- 17% increase in half year Profit to €452m
- Revenues rose 23% to €2.2bln
- Traffic grew by 10% to 40.1m passengers
- Average fares rose by 12%
- Unit costs rose by 13% (excluding fuel they rose by 4%)
- Sector length increased by 12%
- Full year Net Profit guidance increased to €380m-€400m range
Great to see an airline (particularly an Irish one) doing well in these difficult times..... Out of interest, what would the affect on these figures have been if they hadn't postponed the arrival of the eight aircraft that are fully completed and currently gathering dust that were originally due for delivery between now and year end... Also I notice that although revenues rose by 23%, ancillary revenue rose by 22% and fares by 12%..... Neither of these factors are sustainable in the long term as they are fundamentally the anathema to the ethos of an airline that calls itself "the low fares airline". In these competitive times I'm just curious how much more the average fare would have to increase before Ryanair would no longer justifiably be able to call itself this....?
Reading the presentation, costs appear to be presented - having risen in absolute % terms, but (ignoring fuel) having fallen when one makes an adjustment for increased sector length.
I don't have full details, but it would seem that if one makes a similiar adjustment based on increased sector length for revenue, then FR has probably seen ticket revenue unchanged in 2010 compared to 2009.
It seems to me that if you want to make an adjustment to the accounts because of a significant change in the business model - i.e. increased sector length - then one has to make that adjustment to both revenue and costs at the same time. Adjusting one but not the other to flatter the presented accounts seems like a bit of hocus-pocus to me.
But also a plane that does nothing also does not make a profit. FR are cutting so many routes and dropping bases that it will have lots if idle planes with more flying in each year. Also the oil price has just hit a 6 month high and is expect to rise a lot more.
Out of interest, what would the affect on these figures have been if they hadn't postponed the arrival of the eight aircraft that are fully completed and currently gathering dust that were originally due for delivery between now and year end...
Even if they paid for 8 aircraft up front and in full, they would have posted a half year profit and, based on current guidance, a full year profit. Nice position to be in!
Quote:
In these competitive times I'm just curious how much more the average fare would have to increase before Ryanair would no longer justifiably be able to call itself this....?
Until their average fare is higher than one of their competitors.
Quote:
But also a plane that does nothing also does not make a profit. FR are cutting so many routes and dropping bases that it will have lots if idle planes with more flying in each year. Also the oil price has just hit a 6 month high and is expect to rise a lot more.
Any Ryanair aircraft on the ground have helped facilitate current profits which would have been lower if they were flying. As a matter of interest, how many idle aircraft are you projecting befree? Fuel costs are outlined in their half year presentation - 90% of FY11 hedged at $730pmt, 60% of FY12 hedged at $760pmt. Also what's your current thoughts on your predictions made earlier this year?
Quote:
this year they face an extra 300 million euro fuel cost. their average ticket price is now 35 euros so they need an extra 9 million passengers to just pay the extra fuel cost.
the only way FR made more money was the big fall in the fuel cost last year.
They are likly to see less profit this year and long term will get hit by reduced value of the planes. they have to take a loss on teh reduced value when they sell them. last year they sold 3 and expect to sell 10 this year.
if you read French, is a piece about Ryr staff conditions, poorly researched and/or badly edited, doesn't read logically. However it does indicate a race to the bottom by M. O'L. One might hope that if he ever gets a case heard at EU level they might suggest that other countries raise their game to ensure better protection for workers.
I'll be happy to provide a translation but try Google....
Even if they paid for 8 aircraft up front and in full, they would have posted a half year profit.....
Possibly a slight half year profit but undoubtedly a reduction in overall profits which combined with the increase in unit costs, fuel, and average fares puts a whole different slant on yesterdays figures, especially with the fact that some of Ryanair's main competitors are also starting to show signs of recovery in some areas. At 22%, Ancillary Revenue (tea, coffee, baggage charges, credit card and handling charges, petty fines etc) seems to be the key growth area but you can only push those so far.
Quote:
Any Ryanair aircraft on the ground have helped facilitate current profits which would have been lower if they were flying.
Are you suggesting that Ryanair can make more money by 'not' flying their aircraft than they can by flying them.....?
