Airlines, Airports & Routes Topics about airports, routes and airline business.

NEWCASTLE - 8

Old 7th Jul 2015, 08:47
  #6501 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 3,021
Received 197 Likes on 108 Posts
Originally Posted by Skipness One Echo
Those numbers are shockingly low for coming into peak summer transatlantic. On the basis of this load factor, it's a goner, the aircraft can be used more profitably in a stronger market. In regional flying btw, they really need to make money in Economy as business class travel is traditionally weaker, hence the way Virgin out of GLA is shall we say, not cheap.

United and Emirates are not the same.......! By a looong shot.
Agree, if the numbers are correct it doesn't look good, and these days airlines don't give a route 2 years to mature as they did many years ago.

Of course a big difference between Emirates and United (aside the alleged "unlevel" playing field that US carriers constantly whinge about) is that there is a meaningful cargo space to be sold on the 773, and next to nothing on the 757 so there isn't another revenue stream to be tapped.
ATNotts is online now  
Old 7th Jul 2015, 11:10
  #6502 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Gateshead, UK
Age: 25
Posts: 1,168
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Give us a 787, save on fuel, make an agreement with Emirates, fill with ongoing cargo, before you know it NCL is an East-West cargo hub with a daily 787 to New York

In all seriousness I hope we get lucky and UA give us another year to prove ourselves, although they'll probably use it as ammunition in the ME3/US3 debate... "Emirates must be subsidised because they fly a daily 777 to Dubai, where no-one would ever want to go, and haven't pulled out. But we fly a 5 weekly 757 to a city everybody wants to be in and can't turn a profit and have been FORCED to cut the route"

Maybe the high fares have meant it has actually broken even...?
EK77WNCL is offline  
Old 7th Jul 2015, 11:17
  #6503 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 3,021
Received 197 Likes on 108 Posts
Originally Posted by EK77WNCL
Give us a 787, save on fuel, make an agreement with Emirates, fill with ongoing cargo, before you know it NCL is an East-West cargo hub with a daily 787 to New York

In all seriousness I hope we get lucky and UA give us another year to prove ourselves, although they'll probably use it as ammunition in the ME3/US3 debate... "Emirates must be subsidised because they fly a daily 777 to Dubai, where no-one would ever want to go, and haven't pulled out. But we fly a 5 weekly 757 to a city everybody wants to be in and can't turn a profit and have been FORCED to cut the route"

Maybe the high fares have meant it has actually broken even...?
The problem is that if EWR isn't planned to continue, at some frequency, through the Winter season, then a lot of the groundwork done in S15 is undone as a result of the service break. Any business traffic (the profitable element) gained this summer will revert to hubbing over AMS / LHR or flying direct from MAN / EDI and then they will have to fight to get it back to NCL.

Anyway, lets hope the yields overall have been good enough for UA to return next summer - at least they haven't pulled it mid season, so surely it can't be that dire.
ATNotts is online now  
Old 7th Jul 2015, 18:07
  #6504 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posts: 944
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
If United goes it will be down to pricing simple as that , Im not so sure a 757 direct is any more appealing than a few more hours spent traveling on KLM / BA / AF on better aircraft and with a cheaper bill

Suprisingly though it is the Business seats that are being filled and economy that is struggling !
LiamNCL is offline  
Old 7th Jul 2015, 18:36
  #6505 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Dublin
Posts: 2,348
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Will keep saying this

UNITED WILL NEVER BE 100%!!!!!!
It's NOT a CHARTER........
United would be expecting a minimum of 80-90%+ LF during the summer and the 60% been achieved wouldn't even be acceptable in winter where 70%+ would be the norm.

Frequency can't really be cut any more and with it's performance so far it's a question of when it will be scrapped not if, they would probably achieve a higher return operating a 3rd daily EDI-EWR....

Aren't BRS also looking to return a NY connection, lots of competition for the 752!

If United goes it will be down to pricing simple as that , Im not so sure a 757 direct is any more appealing than a few more hours spent traveling on KLM / BA / AF on better aircraft and with a cheaper bill

Suprisingly though it is the Business seats that are being filled and economy that is struggling !
You need Y to preform very well on such routes also, 16 seats in J is nothing to most carriers.
Jamie2k9 is offline  
Old 7th Jul 2015, 19:18
  #6506 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Ireland
Posts: 1,455
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Very few people who use the service know or care what aircraft they will be on so its a fairly invalid point.

A direct service will always beat an indirect service, alot of people just hate the hassle of a transfer when a direct service is available. Therefore the direct will always win.

As an onlooker to NCL, I believe that it needs advertising targeting its competitors. Target the PAX going to MAN, GLA , EDI etc.
AerRyan is offline  
Old 7th Jul 2015, 19:23
  #6507 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: UK
Posts: 361
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
if thats the case, why are thousands still routing to
New York via AMS and LHR?
GW76 is offline  
Old 7th Jul 2015, 19:27
  #6508 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Ireland
Posts: 1,455
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by GW76
if thats the case, why are thousands still routing to
New York via AMS and LHR?
*Prove they are.
*Some will always follow their wallets and not convience more will follow convience to an extent.
*Lack of route awareness.
AerRyan is offline  
Old 7th Jul 2015, 20:45
  #6509 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: London (Babylon-on-Thames)
Age: 42
Posts: 6,168
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
A direct service will always beat an indirect service, alot of people just hate the hassle of a transfer when a direct service is available. Therefore the direct will always win.
Beat on what?
*Prove they are.
*Some will always follow their wallets and not convience more will follow convience to an extent.
*Lack of route awareness.
The numbers clearly show KLM, BA et al still have a loyal load of customers who will connect. You must (at least try) and understand that high spending customers whom the airlines need to make these sort of routes work have a loyalty with existing airlines and alliances. Hence it's hugely simplistic and warrantly innacurate that people simply choose a direct routing. Were that the case, BRS-EWR would still be with us.
Skipness One Echo is offline  
Old 7th Jul 2015, 20:59
  #6510 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Northumberland
Posts: 8,445
Received 68 Likes on 46 Posts
Had a good look, haven't spotted a fact in a while - just plenty of whistling in the dark...

Skippy...

In regional flying btw, they really need to make money in Economy as business class travel is traditionally weaker, hence the way Virgin out of GLA is shall we say, not cheap.
You must (at least try) and understand that high spending customers whom the airlines need to make these sort of routes work
SWBKCB is online now  
Old 7th Jul 2015, 22:57
  #6511 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: NE ENGLAND
Posts: 957
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Can't understand all the hassle re the UA fares pricing. Max return on direct flights is £994 in July & go down to £716 for later August departures. Obviously if your flight involves one of two week days that UA doesn't fly direct then you pay a lot more.
As I noted in an earlier post then deals offered in June were much more competitive with rock bottom prices.
What most seem to miss is that when discussing options AF/KL/BA then in reality the majority of these "state side" bound pax end destination is not actually NYC but any of 20 plus other major US cities.
Take this into account and then NCL-NYC direct is actually no big deal and thus more journey's than not involve a second flight, so what actually IS the attraction of NYC to the majority of Pax.?
Personally I do an average of 2 US round trips a year and use predominantly AF with occasional BA. What's the difference ? well quite a bit , fundamentally there is more choice. A limited non daily offering over a short (5 month) time frame, is not good. I already belong to 2 FF programs & there is a premium seating option so always have the option of avoiding 3-3 seating.
As to marketing, then I personally don't believe that a lot of UA's target market take the service seriously & don't actually see it as anything other than another summer IT destination.
Finally perhaps the main reason for the "observed" low load factors is actually that it actually takes more than 6 months lead time to to attract bookings & that by the time many were aware of the availabilty of the service, then they were otherwise committed.
skyman771 is offline  
Old 7th Jul 2015, 23:38
  #6512 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Middle england
Posts: 539
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
EWR

As a regular on the BHX forum I am used to doom and gloom. It seems to have been catching on this thread.

It is premature to sound the doom and gloom siren about the hard earned New York route. I hope that it returns next summer and develops to a year round service. Seat maps are not always an accurate gauge of load factors and yields.

Centre cities
Centre cities is offline  
Old 8th Jul 2015, 05:30
  #6513 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
Posts: 944
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
If you look into August there is some good loads , i dont know why its so poor atm , Maybe more people are wanting to head east instead of west ?
LiamNCL is offline  
Old 8th Jul 2015, 08:42
  #6514 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Newcastle
Posts: 1,971
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
There is some VAILD points been said

Yes people that will travel regularly to the USA many already have points with BA and KLM etc and it will take time to get those people to transfer.

Also 6 months notice of the route may not be long enough as people may have already booked there flights.

I have been looking at the seat plans for Glasgow also and last week they had a bad week also with loads around 60% and they are normally around mid 80%

Think we need to give this route a chance and like what's been said we don't know what the break even is and we never will

Also the business class is starting to fill up so people are transferring hopefully from BA,KLM it's just taking time
HH6702 is offline  
Old 8th Jul 2015, 08:49
  #6515 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Newcastle
Posts: 1,971
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Low cost airlines

Going back to a post around a week ago about NCL getting new low cost airlines to operate

I think there is room at NCL for certain airlines without upsetting the likes of jet2 and easyjet.


I DO Believe that WIZZ could be good for NCL.
they could make a few of there routes work and also wouldn't upset the others as they don't operate to them
I.e Warsaw

I would also say there is room for VUELING to come in on the Barcelona or let's try Madrid.
They offer onward connections to other parts of Spain which aren't covered by other airlines from ncl and 2/3 x weekly flights could work.
I couldn't really see Easyjet getting upset however it may get them to add extra flights..


The only airline i wouldn't want in would be Ryanair as once funds have gone they to will be gone
HH6702 is offline  
Old 8th Jul 2015, 10:51
  #6516 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: London
Posts: 1,907
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I would like to see EZY give Berlin another go. It has become a much more popular destination since their last attempt.
Jamesair is offline  
Old 8th Jul 2015, 11:49
  #6517 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: London (Babylon-on-Thames)
Age: 42
Posts: 6,168
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Had a good look, haven't spotted a fact in a while - just plenty of whistling in the dark...

Skippy...

Quote:
In regional flying btw, they really need to make money in Economy as business class travel is traditionally weaker, hence the way Virgin out of GLA is shall we say, not cheap.
Quote:
You must (at least try) and understand that high spending customers whom the airlines need to make these sort of routes work
OKaaaaay let me be clear(er).
In regional flying, economy needs to be priced higher as there are fewer "more money than sense types" (my bad) up front flying to New York, cross subsidising us plebs down the back. Hence LON-NYC has some remarkably cheap fares down the back. However a higher economy fare is usually not enough in itself and UA needs to attract sufficient numbers up front to get the numbers over the line. When BA flew GLA-JFK they used to fill the back but were only 1 or 2 short of having enough customers up front to make the route work. Quite literally less than one handful of people in the right seats was all that stood between the axe and going forward.
Hence the (by then) seasonal operation was axed and the asset re-deployed, times change and perhaps the analogy is no longer as valid, I could be wrong. I hope I am, genuinely.

Hope that's a little cleaerer.
Skipness One Echo is offline  
Old 8th Jul 2015, 16:14
  #6518 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Northumberland
Posts: 8,445
Received 68 Likes on 46 Posts
One point that nobodies mentioned when discussing UA prices is the EWR hub element - looking at Flightstats, the next three UA departures from EWR are Syracuse, Fort Lauderdale and Dayton.

Why the assumption that everyone's stopping at NYC?
SWBKCB is online now  
Old 8th Jul 2015, 18:27
  #6519 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: LV
Posts: 2,296
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I don't think that there is any presumption. We're all aware of the connection opportunities, some banded about figures for EDI and GLA were that 30% via EWR were connecting with Florida destinations being amongst the highest. I'm not sure how that helps the perceived moderate at best loads thus far ex NCL
CabinCrewe is offline  
Old 8th Jul 2015, 20:16
  #6520 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: NE ENGLAND
Posts: 957
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I feel that UA have fallen far short in their marketing, not that it was ever to be an easy task, EK were much more slick, in that it was much easier to bring NCL within their national advertising campaigns with one destination (& expanding hub) similar aircraft offered nationally (at least pre A380) & a daily year round service, irrespective whether MAN/GLA/BHX etc i.e a more or less homogeneous product providing greater accessibility for onward travel.
Then there is the other problem that one can not under estimate FF programs & customer loyalty. Most people I deal with wouldn't have a clue as to what aircraft they are to fly on but are acutely aware of the airline so UA probably don't score too low on the 757.
What they possibly may find is that historically UA was never a code share that was ever much use to get to NCL when considering booking engines, ironically it was not such a problem to get to DTV when BMI flew DTV-LHR .
I sometimes wonder that if AA had taken on the route this year instead would they have been able to generate more pax traffic with their BA alliance.
skyman771 is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.