A few years later mytravellite (RIP) entered the BHX-DUB route and 2 minutes later FR went from 2 to 5 flights a day and started routes from BHX to spain on a W pattern to try and drive them off. FR backed down in that one, blaming guess what - landing fees. The same FR thats vanished from DUB - ABZ since EIR appeared, blaming guess what - landing fees! I dont believe any airline in this market can bleed itself to death so I dont believe for one minute nobody can compete with them. Another such case is EZY who backed off EMA scottish routes that WW still operate.
Of course other airlines can compete with FR, but they must be able to differentiate themselves in some way that takes a focus off the price.
The example you gave of ABZ DUB is a case in point, EIR can differentiate by 1. flying a smaller realistic size aircraft with good value tickets,2. EIR are not totally reliant on point to point ABZ DUB pax as they have the advantage of feeding pax to EI US network. 3. 738 is not suited to many thinner markets such as DUBABZ and other tried markets where no competition exists such as DUB HUY, DUB CWL.
Interestingly enough in terms of Go, they despite being not so low cost etc they did start flying Scheduled low fare routes to Sun destinations and these were a success from the start. EZY and FR did follow their lead on this one, when prior to that these markets were the remit of the package holiday companies and charter airlines... And how things have changes since then!
Realistically, I can only see Jet2 wanting it for the routes and airport access; while their classics may be older than baby's, I believe they do have some NGs on the way.
Within the Eu Open Skies area, a route is just a line on the map - at the destination end, where if anywhere would baby have a better deal than Jet2? As for the UK bases, Jet2 have seen baby off at MAN, baby have retreated at MME, perhaps the reasonable sized northern airport Jet2 have shown no interest in, and so far, the space left vacant at CWL is still largely vacant.
EMA is much less busy then it used to be - if Jet2 want to expand there, who is going to stop them, with or without baby. As for Belfast, no way Jet2 would want two bases in a relatively small market.
So that leaves BHX, and airport with big ambitions for long haul, but huge gaps in its short haul network. Again, if Jet2 wanted in as is, they would presumably be welcomed in with open arms. Flybe already enjoying no competiton on the Scottish Central routes, Ryanair could fill many of the gaps left if baby went, especially now they aren't so picky about using the cheapest airports.
Baby going might leave a space for Easy to take another look, but I just can't see why either airline, or any of the others would need to take on the fleet / staff / contracts of baby when they could just cherry pick the routes which will suit their busines model, instead of adapting to fit the deals negotiated by the incumbent carrier.
I think it would be more accurate to say that baby saw themselves off at MAN rather than anything to do with Jet2 or FR or Easy for that matter, my understanding is that all of baby's airport contracts are handled by bmi legal dept, who as the( left hand) signed a pax volume based deal with MAG based on 5-7 aircraft worth of passengers some years back, meanwhile bmi planning ( right hand) allocated aircraft resources that meant only 2 aircraft were available for MAN, it was much the same with MME planning wanted 6+ aircraft in BHX but legal had signed a contract at MME they thought they could walk away from, hence its my understanding that this long running saga with MME is a group liability not a baby one, again CWL was undermined by the need to put an aircraft into BHD for the STN route at the behest of bmi group planning baby management only wanted to move ops to BHD from BFS, not get involved with night stopping aircraft & crews, although i gather STN is doing well now.
Jabird why do you think CWL is a Northern Airport or is Coventry in Northern France??
I can't see bmibaby being bought by another airline ( other than the IAG deal) but everyone I speak to at baby seems very confident that it will be sold within weeks and either NG's or Airbus will be on the fleet within 12 months, great news for all and the industry if that comes to pass.
...i don't agree however that baby came to the market late, they have been around 10 years next month.
bmibaby was formed shortly after bmi management (I use the term loosely) had declared that EMA passenger figures could no longer support the few Fokkers based there and that smaller Embraers would replace them.
Shortly after that announcement, Go/Easyjet moved in and EMA went ballistic.
bmi realised they'd missed a trick and they should have realised they'd missed it for years. Their policy of downsizing to Embraers suddenly became a rush to upsize to 737's.
The attempt failed, because it was too timid, badly managed (of course) and too late. If you want to beat the Easyjets and Ryanairs of this world, you need to be at least as big and better managed. The only way to be as big, unless some Arab billionaire is on your side, is to enter the market small and build the business up as rapidly as it will tolerate. You won't build the business up if the competion have already achieved greater than a critical mass - you'll be gobbled up instead.
...or you'll do what baby have done and constantly be on the run from any competition. Fugitives on the run always come a cropper in the end. The impending sale (if baby is 'lucky') is the beginning of the inevitable end.
Do you have any stats on WW STN route as you said its doing well, theres been nothing but ridicule of it on here so I wondered, been a while since Ive been on it.......and which tube line is CWL on (LOL)
The stats for STN BHD and all routes are freely available on the CAA website, the route carried a total of 7650 in November (thats 3825 each way), you do that math, I wouldnt be too happy about it if I was running the company.I think it was mentioned at that average per flight was about 79...from what I can see and what I have heard the fares being collected are not exceptional so I cant see the yield being great either.
At least it is not as dire as BHD AMS average per flight of 26, and it probably get much worse given that one Sunday I saw the 733 leave AMS with 66!!
bmibaby's search to make the most money out of the lack of investment in fleet expansion was the main demise for CWL.
bmibaby was on the verge of adding a 4th aircraft at CWL after it re-located from MME closure for it to be sent to BHX to compete against Flybe.
This meant bmibaby constantly adding new routes and removing them even before operating them and adding them quite late without much advertising.
The local weather advertising at one stage was even advertising flights from Birmingham rather than CWL.
Thomas Cook even started buying seats on bmibaby flights to PMI, MAH, AGP to name a few which is a reason why bmibaby should have expanded their fleet at CWL rather than drop it from 3 to 2 and then 1.5 and crew having to hotel accomodate to support the Mon-Fri base of aircraft at BHD.
So to cover their own backsides bmibaby left CWL with a huge statement saying CWL was no financially viable for them. So CWL is struggling to attract new airlines as a direct impact of bmibaby constant chopping and changing of routes and announcing that CLW not profitable.
If bmibaby stood on their own two feet a few years back then i would imagine they would have had in excess of 30 aircraft now and CWL & MAN would still be a base.
Are we any closer to the announcement of a new owner. This uncertain period is not doing the prospects of a successful takeover any good at all. I hear the forward bookings are not good at all, having said that, I've booked BHD to Faro for July and it wasn't exactly cheap.
I'm not sure that the lack of an announcement is having any effect on bookings and I doubt that an announcement would change anything, my understanding is that everything is still on track for a MOU to be signed before month end.
A round a dozen new flight deck required for a very busy summer season.
Detailed planning for next winter is well under way, but nothing will be released until ownership resolved.
People who are desperate for a job and the chance to get a 737 on their licence will join anything at the moment: they are like teenagers trying to cop their first feel, and confusing lubricant and puss, so I wouldn't use that as an endorsement for booking tickets for a holiday!
I know it's old but here goes! IF YOU WANT TO MAKE A SMALL FORTUNE IN AVIATION THEN START OF WITH A BIG ONE.
If there are any big investors out there then may I suggest putting money into the rebirth of Dansette! They made some fantastic record players in the 60's and mine still works perfectly. Certainly a better investment than two regional airlines that have been selected for extinction by the economic climate. Ebay is very good for disposal of uniforms and headsets and what a pity you can't sell ego. Still,nothing good lasts forever and money losing airlines last a lot less. It was quoted in the Times some years ago that the pilot was dropped from professional status to the skilled table along with plumbers and electricians. And by the time Bae systems are finnished we'll be in with the car washer's who are minting it. So the there is light at the end of the tunnel, some of the good car wash places give you a uniform.