CORK - 5

[rebelflyer]

As suggested by the previous poster, 2x daily on weekdays and x daily at the weekend (Saturday morning and Sunday evening) would make sense. With 6K passengers (with further growth over time) a daily service to LCY is very sustainable.

Just like to comment on a point made by a bannercounty on building the airport in the Midleton area. An independent report advised against an airport in the Midleton area (Ahanesk) as the "runways would be severe as the ground is undulating, and that the approaches from the north and north-east, which pass over a range of hills attaining a height of 600 feet, would frequently be hazardous in the weather conditions prevalent in the area". Dáil Éireann - 09/Nov/1955 Ceisteanna?Questions. Oral Answers. - Cork Airport

Finding the perfect airport location in the Cork area (including Midleton - East Cork) is difficult due to its topography (beauty), so the Ballygarven site (current) at the top (not the side of fortunately ) of the Lee Valley on a relatively flat surface is a reasonable alternative in these circumstances. A low lying airport would have been preferable (with more favourable meteorological conditions), but very difficult to achieve with so many surrounding hills.

You could have gone further out away from the Cork metro area for the absolute perfect airport site (North Cork possibly), but having your airport located as close by to a densely populated area I think is critical. If you look at how Shannon airport for example has struggled since the stop-over ceased (numbers plummeted and is still struggling), built basically in an isolated, relatively unpopulated area but on a very good airport site. Shannon airport will always struggle to be viable unfortunately (without government support) due to its location away from a reasonable population base.

[AerRyan]

WX probably won't be back, and Flybe certainly are not going to pick up the route. BA cityflyer is more dream than possibility.

[CCR]

Maybe they will if CityJet take over Stobart and at some stage in the future try a double daily weekdays and a daily on the weekends with an ATR.
Great to hear a 767 from Belfast landed in Cork today after a bit of filming in Donegal!

[AerRyan]

How is Shannon on an unpopulated area? 200k people within a 20 minute drive is not unpopulated.

I have seen these troll arguments made before. Shannon is not relevant here, dont make digs at it. The location of Cork Airport in this instance does not could, if you live on what if's then you live a sad life. Weather has affected less than 1% of all cityjet services from ORK. Cork would not have a Metro North, that's entirely theoretical, not even Dublin has a metro!

How about we all get off the dream wagon and discuss things maturely?

[iompar]

A lot of statements about LCY - ORK not being sustainable considering passenger numbers (6735 in March and on a growth trajectory). Some other un-sustainable route (CAA Stats) for March include:

Birmingham - Ork 6316 (2 daily rotations);

Manchester - Ork 6640 (2 daily rotations);

Edinburgh - Ork 3460 (1 daily rotation);

Glasgow - Ork 1870 (5 weekly rotations);

Liverpool - Ork 6965 (1 Daily Fr rotation);

LGW - Ork 10,236 (1 Daily FR rotation).

I would imagine that EI CDG is somewhere around the 6K / 7k mark per month. Are we missing something with the suggestion that the problem was over capacity rather than lack of market! Anyway, EI are the big winner out of this, several K more passengers per month to LHR.

[AerRyan]

77 scheduled return rotations, lets assume 7 were cancelled so 70 x 95 seats x 2 (return flight)= 13,300 seats in march. That gives a 51% LF for LCY. Not great, but should be workable.

BHX-58 return scheduled, say 50 operated, 50 x 70 x 2 = 7,000 seats available= 90%LF

MAN- 66 scheduled, say 58 operated, 58 x 70 x 2= 8,120 seats available = 82% LF

EDI- 31 scheduled, say 27 operated, 27 x 70 x 2= 3,780 seats available = 92% LF

GLA- 24 scheduled, say 19 operated, 19 x 70 x 2 = 2,660 seats available = 70% LF

LPL- 23 scheduled, say 22 operated, 22 x 189 x 2 = 8,316 seats available = 84% LF

LGW- 31 scheduled say 29 operated, 29 x 189 x 2 = 10,962 seats available = 93% LF

Those LF's are relatively good, unlike LCY.

[Angry Rebel]

As ever, the debate is focused on load factor which is only half the picture. The yield needs to be very strong on LCY given how much higher the landing charges etc are compared to those other airports listed as great route examples.

[AerRyan]

You give us the yield and we'll discuss that then.

And for airlines like WX, yield is not as variable as for airlines like FR, their fare structures are more stable.

[840]

I really don't see a future for the London City route.

Cork Airport will be lucky to retain FlyBe on the Cardiff route, never mind get them to launch anything else. I'm genuinely surprised that has lasted longer than London City did, as other than a Rugby World Cup related bonus last Autumn, performance has been woeful.

For BA, we have to remember that they are part of IAG and the main thing they are doing is taking higher yield passengers out of the Heathrow aircraft. If that was constantly flying full, it might make some sense, as they could use the capacity there to feed Heathrow long-haul, but that only hits capacity problems for a few summer months.

Maybe if Cityjet acquired Stobart, they could run a twice daily ATR, but the takeover has to actually happen, and even then it needs to be the best use of the ATR. If that did happen, I would be more hoping to see a larger capacity aircraft used for Birmingham and Manchester than London City coming back.

[Angry Rebel]

Clearly I can't (or wouldn't if I had it) give you the yield. My point (as you know) was that even in the absence of that key information, let's bladder on about the LF and why it's enough to support the route. That was effectively the argument made by a number of posters despite the info gap.

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by Angry Rebel

As ever, the debate is focused on load factor which is only half the picture. The yield needs to be very strong on LCY given how much higher the landing charges etc are compared to those other airports listed as great route examples.

You are absolutely right.

For anyone in doubt, have a look at the LCY fees and charges.

Let's do a quick calculation for a 70-seater ATR, which is being proposed here as a suitable aircraft for ORK-LCY. Let's assume a schedule similar to the existing morning and evening flights.

LCY landing fee, "premium" time slot (aircraft on ground any time between 0745 and 0859, or 1745 and 1859): £1146.

Charge per departing passenger: £26.68 (subject to a minimum charge per aircraft of £1147, equivalent to 43 passengers, explicitly intended to discourage smaller aircraft)

Security charge per departing passenger: £7.23, subject to minimum charge of £310, again equivalent to 43 passengers.

So let's take that 70-seater ATR and assume it manages a 75% load factor (about 53 passengers), which would be pretty good.

LCY costs for both the arrival and the departure are £1146 + (£26.68+£7.23) x 53 = £2943, or £28 (about €36) per one-way passenger.

So before taking into account any costs of aircraft, crew, fuel, ATC, handling at Cork, marketing, distribution, catering, etc., €36 per one-way passenger has to go to LCY, and that's assuming a 75% load factor. If it's only 50% (35 passengers) the minimums kick in and LCY nets £37 (about €47) per one-way passenger.

It's certainly possible that an airline will get a startup discount for a new route, but with the greatest possible respect, I don't think that Cork is a strategic destination for LCY management that'll have them offering aggressive rebates. And in any case the route economics need to work even after the discount period is over.

C.

[fivejuliet]

I've been led to believe a Stobart ATR for the LCY route was examined before the route was announced. Remember Stobart were doing CWL flights for Cityjet at the time.

[CCR]

I`m scratching my head as to why they didn`t use the ATR then.

[runawayedge]

Have to say hats off to WX for trying this route. Looking at the LF it's easy to see why it didn't work, and remember it didn't work on low fuel costs. Those armchair route viability analysts are missing a couple of minor operational points that may have a severe impact on ATR financial performance. LCY landing charges are fixed, irrelevant of aircraft size, ATR has severe RTOW issues ex LCY, possibly as low as 50 pax to ORK. Don't think we will see this route operated again, and definitely not operated by Stobart, as they have their own train set in LCY's backyard.

[WHBM]

Originally Posted by 840

For BA, we have to remember that they are part of IAG and the main thing they are doing is taking higher yield passengers out of the Heathrow aircraft.

Bear in mind that the entire BA operation out of London City is to points that BA also serve from Heathrow. They are two separate markets, which BA have rightly recognised.

[Corkshamrock]

Question on using 35

Quick observation noticed EI-DEF operating Ork to Dus just now leave 35 and turn left continuing the turn to return back over the airfield in direction of south east any reason why it did not just turn right?

[AerRyan]

If your in Ireland, take a look out the window and have a look at those big nasty Cumulusomnibus clouds around. Aircraft generally don't like to fly through them, so youll see a lot of unusual flight paths at all Irish airports today.

[Steviec9]

Cork - Menorca charters axed before starting

Travel agents have cancelled the proposed Cork Menorca charter service by Cityjet over the Summer - again, no/not enough demand. Which leaves Cityjet at Cork with the seasonal services to Nantes and La Rochelle only.

Looks like Cork is reaching saturation point with what it can profitably provide in terms of routes.

[840]

I'd certainly agree that summer routes to Spain and Portugal are at saturation point, possibly over-saturated.

There may be some potential for growth in Italy, which has a quite different clientele from Spain and Portugal. I'm also constantly surprised that nobody has brought back a charter to Crete, seeing how successful it used to be. Possibly Irish Travel Agents could do with slightly less conservatism.

However, I'm broadly in agreement with you. If there is to be growth, it will largely have to be based on new routes focussing on inbound tourism to the Cork/Kerry region, and perhaps and improvement in frequency UK regional routes.

[Jamie2k9]

I'd certainly agree that summer routes to Spain and Portugal are at saturation point, possibly over-saturated.

There may be some potential for growth in Italy, which has a quite different clientele from Spain and Portugal. I'm also constantly surprised that nobody has brought back a charter to Crete, seeing how successful it used to be. Possibly Irish Travel Agents could do with slightly less conservatism.

However, I'm broadly in agreement with you. If there is to be growth, it will largely have to be based on new routes focussing on inbound tourism to the Cork/Kerry region, and perhaps and improvement in frequency UK regional routes.

It could be but traffic is up significantly to Spain/Portugal, on paper this route should of worked. It's not as easy to make money flying to Italy/France. It really needed some of the big operators such as Sunway and/or Falcon to get behind it. Sunway have expanded Mahon ex DUB this week from EMB to 733.

Problem with Crete is the distance and getting an operator to operate it.

EI also not returning GVA this winter.