If indeed there is shortage, then what does an airline achieve by having high minimum experience hours for entry, psychometric testing, sim ride, and a interview where they like to play mind games, and thats just the airlines that squeeze it into 1 day, never mind the 2 days worth experience.
The shortage will fundamentally change the recruitment process and indeed alter power balances in airlines. Administration ought be secondary, operational areas of airlines(due to their ability to affect revenue) have been strongly contained by substantial investments in Industrial Relations and Human Resources.These apparatus will not change until they have to.
If one sits and listens to O'Leary, regarding his 'scheduling problems' you saw his tone largely belligerent, mocking, dismissive and confrontational. That time has now passed. The challenge for Ryanair is to unwind all the investment in a model that required ASSUMED unlimited supply.
He now is on bended knee to the pilots. As Gandhi said;
'First they ignore you,then they laugh at you, then they fight you and then you win'
Gandhi
Much downward pressure has been exerted on terms and conditions. HR grew very powerful and I would assume at Qantas HR drive nearly every decision, email and recruitment process as it struggles for relevance.
This shortage is not cyclical, it is structural. The demographic problem is yet to be addressed fully. Labour associations ought be all over it, but if history rhymes, the union movement is always a dollar short and a day late. Ever wondered why?
The U.S. will face a staggering shortage of pilots - Jul. 27, 2017
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...-next-20-years
The U.S. Is Facing a Disastrous Pilot Shortage
With regard to Framer's comment:
I would be interested to know the answer if anyone can help. I have spent a few minutes searching the web and found a graph showing that in 2000 there were just over 6000 ATPLs in Australia and in 2005 there were 6500 ATPL's in Australia but that is all I can find.
Can anyone direct me to better information?
Do you believe that it would be information that airlines would prefer you do not know? My suspicion is just like the data that mysteriously is excluded from certain company annual reports, they would prefer not to telegraph problems, much like schedule cancellations, they will never publish transparent cancellation aggregates due 'crew shortage'. Nor is it in their interest to tell you how light the number of active ATPL licences are and how few licences are actually issued.