The task for Australian pilots is to recognise that this is a structural (somewhat self fulfilling) shortage.
As Curtain Twitcher kindly posted, the Achilles heel of the model is the 'unlimited supply'.
Every adversarial structure erected by the corporate sphere (in aviation's case) the Ian Oldmeadow (Qantas) model borrows heavily on this. Jetstar ringfenced Qantas mainline and as Peter Gregg (former CFO) testified in a parliamentary joint hearing that JQ will add 'competitive wage tension' Perhaps the 2011 grounding of Qantas reinforces the 1989 meme, but against falling supply, even O'Leary is on bended knee. Eventually in a market with global supply, Australia will catch up.
Having read the Qantas thread on recruitment, I am positive the HR capture has occurred.
The shortage throughout GA is likely to infect firstly the regional airlines, my hunch is that Qlink, Rex and Cobham will struggle to find recruits. As Horizon Airlines (a Q400) operator subsidiary of Alaskan Airlines found in their summer 2017..
But American companies don't have a shortage of people. They have a shortage of wages, benefits, and training. Companies could fix that problem, but they haven't.
Take Horizon Air, a regional airline that services the Pacific Northwest, which the Seattle Times
reports is "cutting its flight schedule this summer because of a severe shortage of pilots for its Q400 turboprop planes.
Whilst there will always be pilots too scared to read up on what has occurred elsewhere and will comfort themselves with the mantra Straya is different, it is not.
- Ask a flying school how many commercial students are trained now versus 15 years ago?
- Ask a GA charter operator how many applicants hang around a season or two in the Kimberly or Darwin, sweeping hangers and washing planes
- Ask CASA how many Commercial licences are granted in Australia year on year. Compare FY17 to FY00.
The shortage is not a cyclical one, it has been building since the baby boomers were born. It has big ramifications for asset prices and indeed labour unit cost. Given the barriers to entry an aviation career presents due time ,commitment and expense is it any wonder that the negative feedback loop of constant downward pressure on terms and conditions, poor work life balance sees a lack of supply?
O'Leary enjoyed the narrative, Qantas' Joyce and Clifford are well known to detest their pilots too. Like O'Leary they enjoy the snide remarks, but the reality is that pilots are a valuable component of a dynamic people business.
De commissioning an adversarial model is like removing asbestos; something that takes patience, commitment and time. Ryanair will face huge resistence if they attempt to do so. Their pilots are well aware of it.
Australian airlines have time to change but will not do a thing until schedule pressure requires them to act. Do not think for a moment they will ever telegraph that the schedules are a problem. I would watch the QLink schedule for the Southern Summer
