Yes - the Youtube video seems to have gone private last evening.
All is not what it seems in perhaps more ways than one on this ...
So it is an interesting one – to further straighten one misunderstanding at least, I agree that the close call, if there was one, can only have been between EI433 and FR9431, and not the trailing FR9451 at all.
The lead pair had both descended rapidly coasting out from Wales, and both picked up extra speed in doing so, but the Ryanair soon bled off the speed, and had started slowing more noticeably. The Shamrock steadily closed on it.
EI433 then descended from FL240 – and FR9431 may have chosen that moment to slow even further to as little as 267 kts. Maybe they were well into planning a likely diversion at that point. EI433 was ordered "turn left immediately for traffic turn left and maintain FL200".
At some stage afterward, FR9431 also turned left and diverted to Shannon at FL170 although I only heard the heading clearance of 250, not the level. The stray 267kts ADS-B plot for FR9431 also carried an altitude of 19800. The next plot I have seen was 297kts at 19275. EI933 had been further ordered to "Climb FL210" which was acknowledged, so I think we might conclude that EI433 at that time was lower than FL210 and had not in fact levelled at FL210 until ordered to climb back up there.
Meantime FR9431 may still have been as high as 19800. If that is the case maybe that's where the controller's eye view of an 800 feet separation comes in.
On coming out of their traffic avoiding manoeuvre, EI433 nevertheless seems to have crossed over the top of FR9431’s track whether that's before or after FR9431 I can't offer a view. They’d regained and maintained FL210 (if they’d ever significantly passed through that level). Meanwhile, FR9451, not having had to do any avoiding reverse S, had caught up some and slotted in closer behind EI433 at FL220 as they both approached the hold. I’ve seen and heard nothing suggesting any unmanaged proximity between those two save for the controller double checking FR9451 had maintained FL220 after EI433 had reminded they were still at FL210.
I say “reminded” because there had been further exchange seemingly initiated by EI433 after the TCAS discussion was over - EI433 said he was maintaining FL210 and the controller said "Thank you for that" Then the controller immediately checked with the FR9451 behind that they were maintaining FL220.
We presume ATC had a continuous altitude readout on RYR51RP (FR9431) via Mode S.
Conversely for clues after the event
we only have intermittent third party collated ADS-B and joined dots – maybe some unjoined ones too. The lowest ADS-B derived altitudes I have seen at the relevant time were 20900 for EI433 versus 19275 at approximately the same half minute for FR9431.
Simon may have access to more detail.
It was a busy lunchtime at EIDW, and one which has suffered a bit in the telling I think.
However, contrary to some opinions here, I'd say it was very much worth the telling as accurately as possible.
As “just another day in aviation” it doesn’t sit comfortably as a normal one ... The ATC RT was pretty slick as usual, but some of the PP RT wasn't – a number of PP’s weren’t sitting comfortably with uncertain hold delays and were asking ATC about them in a number of different ways. The controllers were trying to keep pace with EATs. One I think asked ATC for an ETA and the controller pointedly responded about the EAT. Another when reading back a clearance said “Let me see” in the middle of his transmission. Another soaked up 5 valuable seconds exactly when ATC were probably already anxious to get in their “turn left immediately” order.
I think before FR9431 decided to divert, someone (them?) said something to the effect that “That’s impossible” at around the time that the controller had said “There are fifteen ahead of you”.
I'd be surprised if anyone denied that the hesitant RT added to the stress levels of everyone on frequency.
I remain somewhat perplexed that the LiveATC.net recording seems not to present the clip of the negotiation for diversion of FR9431 on heading 250 until a couple of minutes after "the 737 800 feet below you / we see him descending ... on TCAS" ATC/EI433 exchange. That’s only because if you check the joined dots from ADS-B data presented in the usual places on the web, it looks like FR9431 diverted before the supposed close call. However, "looks like" isn't the same as "actually happened".
As Simon says, I heard no Autopilot disconnect or Traffic Traffic warning on LiveATC.net’s clips either. I guess it is all to do with editing one way or the other ...
