Originally Posted by
The Ancient Geek
Yea right - the usual idiot speculation.
All will become clearer when we have some real facts. There are always a chain of contributing causes and the full story will not be known until the official report is published.
I think speculation that fuel management played some (though not maybe the primary causal role) her is inevitable rather than idiotic here and given the surviving wreckage should be a relatively straightforward task for the investigation. As usual FOD to the fans will indicate if the engines were running and the recorders will indicate the status of the fuel system,
But the speculation (and I agree it is that) is justified to a certain extent ...
If you know the 85 this 1600 nm mission is right at the end of the envelope so even with the correct calcs/weight/speed management they would have been under some time pressure if something went wrong on approach. Further those of you who know the A/C will be aware that the outboard (1 & 4) engines (fed from the outer wing tanks) are responsible for power generation while the APU is fed if I remember correctly from the inboard wing tanks. In normal circumstances the fuel system is very straightforward - set and go with the centre tank emptied first as usual. However in the event of fuel starvation anyone getting creative with the valves could also inadvertently create a situation where electrical power is lost as was initially reported (though not verified yet). Even if fuel starvation was not the cause of the reported malfunction Medellin is not the approach where I would want to deal with an electrical failure with limited hold/diversion options.
As people have correctly pointed out there are always multiple causes in incidents such as this and I would be very surprised if fuel management wasn't at least part of the problem.