peekay4
Great post. I couldn't agree with you more except the market analysis part. I know, market analysis is mostly a crap shoot, but there you go, and pass the dice.
If I accept the notion the market today is NOT what these guys envisioned years ago, on the face of it, I suspect you're right. But, it soon
will be what was envisioned years ago simply because I believe airlines (legacy airlines that is) will be, out of necessity, adjusting their business models and I further believe the scope "speed bump" will ensure that. (even BBD have significantly reduced RJ production, anyone notice? I don't think they see the RJ competition with MRJ and EMB as including them any more) I can't imagine UA, DL, AA, not trying or wanting to get rid of the "headache" Regional Airlines give them. To even try to bring that flying and those services back in-house will undoubtedly take something like a CSeries. Not a scoped out aeroplane (like MRJ and EMB), because CSeries is simply not a regional jet and not as heavy as those A and B modified alternatives.
The rest of this notion is still tumbling around in my head but I believe the grown ups will if they aren't already trying to formulate how to go about it.
Lots of Boeing out-of-production 37s out there at ridiculous prices. Any CEO or CFO would be insane to pass them up. Even with the short term gain for long term pain aside. For this reason alone I expect DL will go for a mix of Airbus and Boeing and walk away from Bombardier. As a long time Bombardier customer, they're simply being polite by saying they're "extremely interested" in the aeroplane, when in fact, the remark may not be as sincere as BBD may hope.
GF apparently are heading to Montreal in the weeks ahead as they prepare their fleet renewal announcements for the Bahrain air show. It sounds like we could see them walk away from this aircraft as well.
If any or all of this comes to be reality, I doubt it will be the end of the CSeries. I will hold that opinion until Swiss have operated the aircraft for six months to a year. CSeries will be measured by that entry into service and word-of-mouth satisfaction or dissatisfaction until an American airline has operated it for at least a year. Which won't be any time soon based on present deliveries. I don't look for CSeries to be a success immediately, it may not be. But I still believe it will be a success which is the essence of our exchange.
Willie
