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Old 26th Dec 2015, 02:16
  #61 (permalink)  
peekay4
 
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I highly doubt predictions that this aircraft is a loser is anywhere near the mark.
I guess it's how you define "loser". From a financial perspective, using Bombardier's own numbers, the CSeries is pretty much a guaranteed loser.

For the next 20 years (through 2034), Bombardier is forecasting the total market size for 100-150 seat commercial aircraft to be 7,000 deliveries.

Even assuming Bombardier wins fully half of this market -- an unbelievable 3,500 aircraft** -- they will have negative ROI for the full 20 year period. (If they are not selling at loss, at Bombardier's own target margins, and splitting any income with Quebec 51%-49%).

**To put things in perspective, the grand total of CRJ deliveries across all models is less than 1,800 units. They can almost double the CRJ deliveries and still be at negative ROI. Such is the heavy price of wasting billions of dollars down the drain.

Bombardier might be able to "break even" in CSeries manufacturing in < 5 years, but they will never recoup their investment back.

And that's before any additional "investment" from the Ottawa. If as expected Ottawa puts more money in, then any future income must again be split with Ottawa in addition to Quebec, in whatever form (dividends, loan interest, etc.) Bombardier's share to recoup any invested money becomes smaller and smaller.

That's also not counting any "collateral" damage the CSeries program has done to Bombardier. E.g., having to sell 30% of the rail business (and associated future income) to prop up the aerospace business; forced cancellations of other programs to save money; the cost of carrying Bombardier $9+ Billion debt with a junk credit rating; the cost of relinquishing the RJ market to Embraer, etc., etc.
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