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Old 25th Jul 2014, 09:53
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hamster3null
 
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Originally Posted by A_Van
Mentioning that US new the location of all the Ukrainian resources does not rule out the fact the Russians new them too. And with better resolution, technically speaking. Just because they are closer. And with better knowledge of their own missile and radar capabilities.
When high officials of the Russian DoD were saying (during the open briefing) that some BUKs of the Ukrainian army could reach MH17, I see no reason not to trust them. Because these data are verifiable.
Here is the map they showed:
http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/brp_4.nsf/9f...ElemFormat=jpg

And they were very careful during that briefing, did not blaming anybody directly.
After the DoD briefing claimed that the video showing the Buk allegedly driven in the direction of Russia was shot in Krasnoarmeysk (Ukrainian controlled territory), and that was subsequently thoroughly debunked when Ukrainians released the actual location where it was shot (Luhansk), credibility of the rest of the information in that briefing was seriously shaken.

As to the linked map, it is showing three Buk batteries within range of the assumed hit location. All of them were inside separatist-controlled territory (the one near Donetsk was near the front lines, the other two were deep inside).

In addition, we know that the shrapnel damage to the fuselage is concentrated in front, with particularly heavy density in front of the cockpit on the left side, so we can pretty safely rule out the westernmost two batteries (they would have left damage to the rear and to the right wing), and even the eastern battery would be stretching it. A launch from straight ahead or slightly to the left of the route would be more likely. If you look at any recent map of combat activities in the area, you can see that front left quadrant from the assumed hit location is all separatist-controlled territory at least for 40 km in all directions (and, except for the pocket straight ahead along the Russian border, there's no Ukrainian territory closer than ~70 km.)

And, of course, there's still the question "why would those Ukrainian Buks, if they were in fact there, possibly be shooting at MH17?" We have a reasonable explanation why separatists could have shot it down (they thought it was a Ukrainian transport plane). It's extremely hard to find an explanation for this action if it were committed by Ukrainians. This is not an active homing missile like S-200 that you can "lose" (like Ukrainians themselves did with Siberia Airlines 1812 in 2001). Separatists have no air force. MH17 was approaching from the heart of Ukraine and could not have been mistaken for a Russian military plane.

Last edited by hamster3null; 25th Jul 2014 at 10:07.
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