Lyman :agree with you except on one thing : Luck does plays a role , always did.
Taking AF ( but only as an example , could take another airline ) was there anything controlled that prevented Toronto to become 200+ casualty instead of zero ?, same could be said for Habsheim, Brest or Pau more recently )
Been long enough in this business to know you can pile up statistics anyway you like , can hide anything you like or boost anyhing you like using numbers .
Safety is a culture, an immaterial thing, not easily translated in a mathematical formula.
clippermaro : you are right on the mark this old culture is more AF than : "French" . Other French airlines have not necessarily kept the same culture ( Air Carraibes comes to mind) although other still do.
The French air Force is not at all like this anymore since a long time .