Brian, I take your point, but I don't think it negates the essence of my "essence". In fact your narrative rather reinforces it, I feel. If you can't see something ahead, you're certainly looking for something, anything!
I have crossed Cook Strait at 500ft under low cloud with much of the land ahead obscured, not "letting go" of that behind until it was sighted, with the texture of the surface below helping to maintain situational awareness. I knew I was over the sea, or I wouldn't have been there.
I absolutely agree with you, in a complex operation like an airline, you have to look at the whole organisation. I do understand why "blame" is an anathema to you. Nevertheless, in everyday parlance, you do something wrong you get the blame. Open reporting within a company is another matter.
HPSOV L. Statistics is as much an art as a science and some might interpret say 1,2 or even 10,20% of "your" pilots failing "your" test as meaning the company has a lot of poor captains - it doesn't disprove pilot error. You might need to take samples from other companies. But the idea is helpful and the conclusion valid: systemic disorder is likely.