PN, i know that, and you know that, and i don't doubt her DS know that - but she doesn't, and i don't think she knows or cares that doesn't know that.
which do you think is prefereable: us beating off an attack - and taking casualties doing it - or her staying in her box, gobbing off certainly, but knowing that he'd get a very quick, very hard shoeing long before her forces were able to meet their glorious destiny on 'Las Malvinas'?
the problem is not what will happen, but what she thinks will happen - and to the average civvy, if you put 30 old fighters against 4 new ones, they'd say it would be a nasty, messy fight that would end in the guy with the 30 fighters winning. why should she be any different?