migrant
Unfortunately, with all due respect, you once again just contradicted yourself on your calculations. 100 a/c in approximately 20 years (early 90´s to 2012) is completely different than 70 a/c in 8 years
Yeh it’s chalk and cheese isn’t it? Between 1990 and 2012 CX increased its fleet size from 25 to 131 aircraft or by 424% or if averaged out over 22 years by just over 19% per annum. In the next eight years the net increase in the fleet based on today’s order of 97 aircraft minus 59 retirements of older aircraft i.e. 21 B744’s, 6 B744 BCF’s, 11 A340’s, 5 B772’s, 6 B773, and 10 A330’s will be 29% or about 3¾% per year. Even if we do have 200 aircraft by 2020, that still only represents a 53% increase in fleet size by the end of the decade or about 6½% per year. Or to put it even more simply for you, our expansion over the last 22 years has been 3x faster than the best case scenario will be over the next 8 years. Even with such expansion over the last 22 years commands have gone from 2½ years to 12 years from DOJ.
Even with the retirement age raised up to 65, the market will pick up like crazy in the years to come
That comment is based on nothing more than your personal opinion. Most would argue the next 20 years will be the toughest for the world economy since the great depression. As someone who has studied the Great Depression in detail I suggest you do the same. The events of 1929-1938 are repeating themselves to a "T".