Svarin;
But that doesn't explain without an initial UAS upset why the aircraft finished up so close to the LKP even if it did enter an unrecoverable stall following the attempted A/P reset.
The only thing we positively know at this time is at the nominal 0210z AOC report, the aircraft was west of the track. This probably occurred within 30 seconds of the report and not as a premeditated crew action. Unless of course an over-speed event was already occurring, and the heading of the a/c could have been anywhere.
So in 5 minutes the a/c would appear to have gone effectively nowhere. Methinks there must have been more than one upset. In that respect only, your scenario doesn't quite fit, though I am keen to hear a better explanation.