Orca
Ships can be easy to sink if you can find and hit them repeatedly. Once found and hit, eventually enough HE will overcome any amount of armour / damage control, either by fire, structural failure, ingress of oggin or death of ships company. The trick is to find, identify and attack the ship first, which is not as easy as is often made out.
Therein lies the fundamental difference between a land base and a sea base. One can move (and therefore makes targetting difficult) and one cannot (therefore easier to target and suppress, but harder to completely disable). Artillery or Frog-type missile fire can effectively close a base without scratching anything in a HAS, in the same way that firing a bucket load of Seersucker, Yakhont, etc will eventually do for a naval force.
As for the Day 1 campaign, I suspect you'd want to do that anyway (but may not be allowed - see RoE), but in any case you'd have to be 100% sure against a wide target set. It's also unlikely anyone with military skills greater than Saddam would sit in their bases fat dumb and happy waiting for a GPS delivery of nasties.
ICBM - unfortunately, while your point re CV ops might be true, I'd put a fair bit of money that the guys who've done exchange tours have not done time in CATCC, Wings / Little F (Air & mini-boss in USN), handlers office or the squadron engineering and logs posts.
While they may be adept at doing the mission plan, launch, mission, recovery thing, they are unlikely to have a great understanding of how to spot a deck, arrange aircraft for servicing vice maintenance, weapons prep and bombing up and how all the various departments both in the squadrons and on the ship work to deliver the sortie rate. People thinking just about aircrew and (to some degree) chockheads are missing the point - it's the corporate experience of how to put it all together that is about to be lost. Nor can that be maintained at HMS Siskin - that just gives the basics of handling, not the fine art of pulling it all together.
As SDSR says "we need a plan to regenerate the necessary skills"- all I can say is it had better be a f8cking good one, cunning eneough to do more than brush your teeth with!