Moaning Moping Morrissey
WWW - I agree with much of your analysis on the economy but eventually some good will come of this almighty clusterf*ck - one thing that will be better is that real UK house prices will be at least 50% lower than they were in 2007 ... or to put it another way, 100% more affordable to CTC/OAA/Jerez cadets who paid 80+ to get a summer only job that pays less than a tube driver. Also the lack of financing options - even most branches of Bank of Mater & Pater will stop lending soon - HAS to reduce the pool of low hours pilots which will eventually benefit T&C for existing drivers. The signs that the FTOs are getting desperate are there for everyone to see and the numbers coming through WILL drop dramatically very soon. In general I don't buy in to the theory that markets are self balancing but this one will.
I quit the UK last summer but for 15 years before that I was paid well by the industry that caused this mess. You've mentioned the shape of the curve before but it's no crystal ball - it can be wrong, it has been wrong before and it might be wrong now ... and since you know what it is supposed to mean would you rather see it inverted? We're in completely uncharted territory and nobody knows what the new economy will look like for airlines or anyone else when the dust eventually settles.