ukdy - true that history doesn't completely repeat itself. Things will be different this time for sure. The whole industry is radically different now compared to 20 years ago if nothing else.
However, a knowledge of what happened in previous times of recession and surging unemployment at least provides a rough guide as to what to expect this time. Many Wannabes have little or no idea of how things were in commercial aviation in the period 1990 - 1994. I tend to bring it up a lot so as to encourage them to do a bit of research for themselves. Its all to easy to overwhelmed by the bullshit baffles brains approach of the Flying Training Industry and Her Majestys Government Ministers. Both are apt to lie.
Wikipedia provides suprisingly detailed and accurate articles on the demise of the likes of Dan Air and Air Europe.
Quote:
At the end of the first week of March 1991 ILG and all of its UK-based subsidiaries entered administration resulting in 4,000 job losses.[6]:353 Many of the aircraft operated by Air Europe and its regional Air Europe Express affiliate were impounded, leaving a large number of passengers stranded at various airports in the UK and overseas.
[edit]Causes of collapse
The main causes leading to the collapse of ILG and its UK-based subsidiaries, including Air Europe and Air Europe Express, were:
A major, unforeseen downturn in traffic as a result of the recessionary economic conditions in the UK and a looming war to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation.[1]:169-70, 192
Undercapitalisation.
An unsound financial structure.
Being financially overextended.
Lack of ownership of any significant assets.
A high-risk strategy.
Against the background of a looming war in the Gulf as a result of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait during the summer of 1990 and a major recession in the UK at that time, ILG began suffering heavy losses and mounting debts.[1]:169-70,192
ILG/Air Europe's senior management was aware that ILG had been facing a cash crunch from as early as 1989 onwards. This had made it more and more difficult for the group to finance the aircraft it already had on order, notably the F100s and the MD-11s.
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Air Europe - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Wannabes are often unaware that in previous recessions large, household name airlines, who have recently grown and expanded and posted healthy profits - go bust. Can you think of any airlines that may currently be undercapitalised, with a somewhat unsound financial structure, who are arguably financially overextended whilst owning few significant assets? I think I can.
It is history that suggests to me that we will not see this period pass without the failure of some bigger beast airlines.
I hope for all our sakes that it doesn't happen. I don't think I could handle being a Wannabe again!
WWW