On the downturn thread many people appeared with bullish and positive views and the debate ensued. On the Upturn thread the same thing is happening. Both Upturn and Downturn threads are discussions about the wider economic envirnoment in which commercial aviation lives. You can be a Bull or a Bear on either thread - that's fine.
I'll stop worrying about oil prices once they've spent 6 months below $70 a barrel - until then they are at record prices outside of the design limits of most business models. One test detonation will be all that is required to soar past the recent high..
The oil price is a marginal issue. The real issue is recession and the number of passenger miles declining AT ANY ticket price. This is the real issue. The marginal cost implications of kerosene in wing tanks would be no problem if the economy were booming or just doing well. After all, the average easyJet fare is £46. When Gordon Brown invented £10 Airport Duty Tax out of thin air it had the same effect then that a doubling of oil prices would have had. In that year easyJet profits rose, load factor increased and they added 15 additional aircraft.
Its not oil. Its the House Price Crash leading to Recession that is the issue.
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