With the likely US interest rate rise at the end of the year (Bernanke has implied as much), and Obama taking office (don't bet against it), the USD will rebound strongly. And you're seeing some of that sentiment entering the markets now. I think what remains to be seen is how many 'credit crunch' skeletons are left in the closet. At this point, I don't think anyone knows the answer to that.
But if the US reserve stockpile is sufficient for the onset of winter, the oil price will surely drop (and hopefully burst this commodities bubble and drag all the hedge funds down the toilet). That's unless if Bush decides to go blow up some nuclear reactors before he leaves...
