buoy15
So who's decision was it?
You are working from the premise (as, I believe were the 2 Air Marshals) that
someone made a decision not to turn left towards the Corran waypoint, deciding instead to attempt to climb up, IMC, over the Mull.
The fact that the next waypoint was selected gives a very strong indication (Mr Spock would say that it is logical to assume) that the Captain had
made a decision to turn to left, but the fact that the aircraft impacted the ground somewhat to the right of track indicates that something prevented him from turning the way he intended. Indeed, a number of different technical failures have been identified, which may have led to the aircraft failing to respond to a control input to turn left.
Before they do so again now, I will mention that supporters of the negligence finding have often pointed to the fact that the aircraft seems to have been manoeuvring under control when it impacted the ground, but the fact that the aircraft was in this extreme (for IMC) attitude suggests the opposite - particularly when the apparent position of the rudder pedals at impact is taken into account.
I accept the Air Marshals' apparent observation that highly-skilled and qualified pilots occasionally do stupid things that lead to accidents (hence ACM Wratten's letter to Station Commanders), but the fact that the aircraft struck the cloud-covered ground at (relatively) high speed provides
no evidence whatsoever that this was the result of a conscious decision by the crew. That's why they should not have been found negligent and why so many of us have expended huge amounts of time and effort to getting this unjust finding overturned.
these two experienced pilots, who were under some pressure to achieve their tasking, should have forgotten the basics of airmanship and failed to hear the bells ringing regarding the safety of the ac in IMC
There is no evidence to show that they did not apply basic airmanship or that they intentionally entered IMC. However, we have at least two pieces of evidence that they intended to turn left and fly VFR just off the coast - their planned route and the selection of the Corran waypoint. Additionally, the Captain had asked for a Chinook HC1 to be retained in theatre
because of its superior clearance in icing conditions. This, I believe, demonstrates that the Captain was all-too-aware of the risks associated with a climb into IMC over the Mull, making it far less likely that, as Air Marshals Day & Wratten have hypothesised, he made that decision. That this hypothesis (and that is all it is) has blackened the otherwise good names of the two pilots for the last 13 years is nothing short of shameful and the document that has now been submitted gives an opportunity for the MoD gracefully to redress this wrong.