....you are talking rubbish... how can you state categorically that "The statistical probability is high that this L-39 crash was pilot error".
How dare you make such an assumption only 2 days after such a tragic accident.
well, ... formal aircraft mishap investigation statistics have always shown the human 'pilot' as the highest causal rate factor in such incidents. Typically, primary "pilot-error" is attributed to 40-60% of all aircraft accidents... both military & civilian. Other potential causal factors (weather, maintenance, ATC, etc) are much less likely individual causes.
http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm
Though obvious pride in our profession makes it a bit difficult to acknowledge, the accident statistics are fairly consistent. It's not really surprising... since the pilot is the key integration & decision-making node in the aviation 'system' involved in any particular sortie -- and that any significant errors/oversights by that pilot have more serious consequences compared to other 'system' nodes/factors.
Objectively, if one were to hear a news report of an aircraft crash somewhere in the world, but knew no other details at all about that crash -- it would be logical to assume that crash was probably caused by pilot-error... because statistically that is by far the most common specific cause of aircraft crashes. It is not a denigration of the piloting profession, but merely unfortunate fact.
And IMHO airshows tend to increase the risk of pilot error, beyond that of routine flight operations.
The NTSB investigation report on this L-39 mishap should be available by the end of this year.
Stay Tuned.