Facinating stuff!
The nuclear program:
Despite Israeli and South African denials, a detailed study made by U.S intelligence eventually determined that the blast was caused by the testing of a neutron bomb in the three kiloton range, This was the "enhanced radiation" weapon intended to stop Syrian troops from storming the Golan Heights. The September 22 event was the first in a series of such tests. One Israeli source claimed that three tests were actually conducted at the time, all supposedly under thick cloud cover. But " it was a ****-up," he said. "There was a storm and we figured it would block VELA, but there was a gap in the weather - a window –and VELA got blinded by the flash."
This is highly probable. Given that the Israeli nuclear program was closely allied to the South African effort it's difficult to believe that the Israelis developed a high yield neutron delivering device in issolation. (A neutron bomb is designed to kill with the minimum of destruction to property and structures.) No record of any work on a device of this type has ever been admitted to by the SA Government; moreover, the tallies of fissionable material produced by the enrichment plant are considered accurate but only after the Government had allowed itself several years to cover its tracks.
Therefore it's likely that the nuclear weapons program was wider in scope than that admitted to by the De Klerk govenment. In all probability excess nuclear material was transfered to Israel during the four year cover up period.
Officially, the primitive "gun type" (or plunger type) devices admitted to were probably not deliverable by artillery (impractical & too heavy) or by ballistic missile (too heavy). Trying to build a "gun type" a-bomb that can be fired from an artillery gun is also improbable because of the high g forces experienced by the shell on firing.
So the likely nuclear delivery system available was an aircraft. As correctly pointed out you could drop one of these babies out the back of a C130 or similar if your dedicated bombers weren't up to the task.
Therefore a ballistic missile guidance system would not win or lose the war unless used as a bluff. (Assuming that there are winners and losers in nuclear war)
The Helderberg
No CVR transcript (including the enhanced version) published to date can possibly be complete. And the transcripts do not align with the version supposedly considered by the TRC. The start - stop theory, based on the disconnection of an electrical bus seems plausible.
As for the suggested cargo:
- "Red Mercury": Snake oil as far as I know; there no such thing. Various mercuric salts are red in colour so the "red" moniker is not terribly useful.
- Ammonium perclorate: Stupid to import it when it's easily manufactured.
- Complete nuclear device: C'mon!
- Munitions: hmmm.
The guidance system theory has a few merits: if the Americans were concerned with the Russians obtaining it, that would justify their response. But if it were such a sensitive device then what were the South Africans doing with it in the first place?
Next - and this is a biggie -
why is the present SA regime trying to perpetuate the cover up? What's in it for them? Was the source of the fire not merely a fault on the aircraft but perhaps deliberately set?
[ 09 August 2001: Message edited by: The Unteleported Man ]