The latter.
The wing lift is not directly relevant.
What matters is the aircraft pitching moment, which is comprised of the wing (or wing-body if you prefer) pitching moment, and the tail lift * tail arm. Those make up the aircraft tail-on pitching moment, and it's THAT which matters.
(The reason wing lift isn't the key is that a wing with a nose down pitching moment - i.e. any cambered airfoil) will have an increased nose-down PM with increased speed at fixed alpha - even if the lift reference is at the cg.